Topline
An unusual plan to re-draw congressional lines in Texas that could earn Republicans five more House seats in next year's midterms was unveiled Wednesday, and the state’s Democrats are reportedly considering a stonewalling move that could cost them up to $1 million per month in fines.
Texas GOP legislators are working to try to help Republicans cling to the narrow majority they currently have in the U.S. House by re-drawing lines in the state years before they would normally redistrict at the end of the decade.
Lawmakers have been working on the plan for months—since President Donald Trump’s team called on them to take action and flip Democratic seats through redrawing district lines—but the draft map unveiled Wednesday is the first time the plan has been publicly revealed.
The map aims to flip seats currently held by Democrats near the Austin, Dallas and Houston metro areas, but the maps are likely to change before a final draft is approved.
The current proposal targets the seats of Democratic Reps. Greg Casar, Lloyd Doggett, Julie Johnson, Marc Veasey and Al Green are the most directly, and the changes would also bleed over into the districts of other congress members, like outspoken Trump critic Rep. Jasmine Crockett, but not dramatically change their constituency.
Under the proposed new lines, Trump would have won 30 of Texas' 38 House seats in the 2024 election, according to the Texas Tribune (he did win 27—all 25 of the seats currently held by Republicans and two won by Democratic Reps. Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez).
To block the proposed redistricting, Texas Democrats have considered fleeing the state and forcing a quorum break that would see them each incur a fine of $500 per day, or a combined $1 million per month—a cost the Tribune says deep-pocketed donors have expressed willingness to pay if needed.
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The current House of Representatives has 219 Republican members and 212 Democratic members (there are four vacancies—three Democrats have died this year and one Republican resigned). Traditionally, parties in power lose seats in midterm elections and it's possible Democrats could win the majority next fall, which has led the White House to push Texas Republicans to redistrict and secure more seats. The current plan for the new lines would give some Democrats in urban centers even bigger margins than they currently have, and disperse Republican voters into several districts currently represented by Democrats, making them more competitive. The maps don't significantly change the political make up of any Republican incumbents’ districts, according to the Tribune, but they do change demographics. The changes would create two more majority white districts (there are currently 22), add one majority Hispanic district (currently seven) and create two majority Black districts, where there currently are none.
Democrats in the Texas legislature are willing to take drastic measures to stop the redistricting, which Doggett has called a “crooked scheme” by Trump. Democrats told the Tribune they're considering fleeing the state so Republicans don't have the quorum they need to vote on the new maps, but it comes at a hefty price and at the risk of arrest. Crockett has said she doesn't think the monetary penalties are enforceable, but even if they are, unnamed sources said they'd likely be covered by fundraisers. If they do manage to force a quorum break, Crockett said the time would be used to educate the public about the new maps and allow legal challenges to proceed.
In California, where 43 of the 52 House seats are held by Democrats, Gov. Gavin Newsom has threatened to respond in kind. He has proposed re-drawing districts in his state in a way that could give Democrats a boost between five and seven seats, but his plan would be more complicated. In Texas, the legislature controls redistricting, full stop. But in California, it’s an independent commission that draws the state’s political maps and they do so once per decade, following the census. For Newsom's plan to go forward, voters would have to vote on a ballot measure in an upcoming election to either approve new maps or to permanently change the way the state does redistricting. Even if that happened, it’s unlikely to be done before the midterms next year. Ohio and Missouri, which could render four more Republican seats, combined, are also looking at redistricting. Florida and New Hampshire have Republican governors who could possibly be swayed to re-draw congressional lines.
Texas House Republicans unveil new congressional map that looks to pick up five GOP seats (Texas Tribune)
Texas Democrats are fundraising to potentially leave the state to block GOP-backed redistricting (Texas Tribune)
How Republicans are trying to redistrict their way to a majority (Vox)
White House Pushes Texas to Redistrict, Hoping to Blunt Democratic Gains (New York Times)