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Forbes
Forbes
28 May 2023


Fed Meets As Speculation Builds On Possible Rate Cut

NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 16: A Wall St. sign next to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) September 16, ... [+] 2008 in New York City. U.S. stocks continued to drop Tuesday morning for the second consecutive day, following yesterday's Dow Jones Industrial Average plunge of 4.4% or 504 points, being the worst single day loss since the terrorist attacks of September 2001. Today the Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce the target interest rates for the federal funds. It's not clear how the central bank will respond to recent turmoil in the world's financial markets. This comes after news of Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc selling itself to Bank of America Corp, the financial firm Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and insurance giant American International Group Inc. (AIG) attempting to raise capital to stay afloat. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

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Where’s the imminent recession we were promised a year ago?

Nowhere apparently, but hardly anyone has come forward to admit they were wrong. And that includes Wall Street gurus.

Last June the finance world was abuzz with pledges that the U.S. economy was barely a hare’s whisker away from diving into a recession. Back then, I wrote a column for Time magazine which clearly showed that there were no signs of an imminent recession.

There are still few signs that the economy will contract in the few weeks ahead. In fact the opposite seems true. Consider the following:

Sure, there are some indications of weakness in the housing market, largely caused by soaring borrowing costs and lack of available credit from the banks.

The tech sector is also going through some tumult, but its the first major downsizing in two decades. That’s something that periodically needs to happen in an industry that requires an ongoing cycle of innovation, disruption and destruction.

Other than that things seem dandy on the economic front and have done in the 12 months since financial blabbermouths promised us an imminent recession.

So here’s a question:” Why won’t self-styled Wall Street gurus ‘fess up and say thye were wrong. Not partially wrong, but really truly wrong.