Former President Donald Trump’s promise not to tax Social Security benefits, tips or overtime, along with his pledges to impose steep tariffs and expand deportations, would “dramatically worsen Social Security’s finances,” the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said Monday—the latest analysis of Trump’s plans to conclude they’d have a negative impact on the economy.
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Williams Arena at Minges Coliseum on ... [+]
Under Trump’s plans, Social Security’s ten-year cash shortfall would increase by $2.3 trillion, and Social Security trust funds would run out of money three years earlier, by fiscal year 2031, compared to existing estimates, the nonpartisan public policy organization reported.
Trump’s proposal to end taxation of Social Security benefits would increase the cash deficit by about $950 billion by fiscal year 2035, while his proposal to end taxes on overtime and tips would add $900 billion, and restrictions on immigration, coupled with his tariff policies, would grow the deficit by $400 billion.
Harris has echoed Trump’s promise to eliminate taxes on tips and vowed not to raise taxes for people earning less than $400,000, though the committee did not address Harris’ plans in its report on how Trump’s policies would impact Social Security.
Under current law, which limits Social Security spending to the amount it receives in tax revenue, benefits would be cut by 23% by 2035, but under Trump’s plans, they would have to be cut by about 33%.
The cuts would have the most impact the lowest income earners who already don’t pay taxes on benefits, while the cuts to higher earners would be offset somewhat by an increase in average after-tax benefits.
The report is the latest to show that some of Trump’s proposals would hurt the economy, including a Wall Street Journal survey released last week that found 68% of 50 economists surveyed said inflation would be higher under Trump’s economic plans than Harris’.
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42%. That’s the share of respondents to a Financial Times/University of Michigan survey released in August who said they trust Harris over Trump to handle the economy, while 41% said they trust Trump—the first time since February in the groups’ monthly polls that didn’t show Trump with an advantage on the economy. An Associated Press/NORC poll released Monday also found more Americans trust Harris to handle taxes on the middle class, jobs and unemployment and the cost of housing. But they prefer Trump to handle tariffs, immigration and the cost of groceries and gas.
Harris hasn’t released a detailed plan on Social Security, but she vows on her website to “protect Social Security and Medicare against relentless attacks from Donald Trump and his extreme allies.” The policy platform promises to “strengthen Social Security and Medicare” by “making millionaires and billionaires pay their fair share in taxes.” Harris has supported Biden’s vow not to cut Social Security benefits, and she co-sponsored legislation during her time in the Senate to expand Social Security.
Trump previously suggested he was open to cutting Social Security and Medicare, telling CNBC in March “there is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting and in terms of also the theft and the bad management of entitlements.” Trump’s campaign contested the characterization that he was open to cutting Social Security in response to media coverage of the interview. His spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told CNN he was “clearly talking about cutting waste, not entitlements,” and he would “continue to strongly protect Social Security and Medicare in his second term.” The Republican Party platform also states that the party will “fight for and protect Social Security and Medicare with no cuts, including no changes to the retirement age.”
Two-Thirds Of Economists Think Inflation Would Be Worse Under Trump Than Harris, Poll Finds (Forbes)
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