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Forbes
Forbes
15 Aug 2023


Trey Lance during the 49ers' preseason game against the Raiders

The San Francisco 49ers are better off retaining Trey Lance — rather than trading him.(Photo by Ian ... [+] Maule/Getty Images)

Getty Images

As crazy as it sounds, the San Francisco 49ers might be better off retaining Trey Lance rather than trading him.

In the age of social media and overreactions, the biggest topic coming out of the Niners’ preseason opening loss to the Las Vegas Raiders is Lance’s struggles.

While his stat line actually looks good — 1o-of-15 for 112 yards and a touchdown — it’s the perfect case of the box score not telling the entire story. Lance’s touchdown pass to Ross Dwelley actually should have been an interception by Raiders cornerback Duke Shelley. Not only did Shelley drop the pick, Lance demonstrated terrible mechanics by making a throw across his body.

Outside of the terrible throw, Lance took four sacks in just six offensive drives and one half of play. He also led three straight three-and-outs to start out the game.

Despite his shaky play, Lance remained positive during his postgame press conference and took blame for the three three-and-outs to start the game.

“That was definitely frustrating, but I obviously put it on myself to continue to be better, make sure the guys around me are ready to go, I’m ready to go,” Lance said. “It starts with me so I put that on myself.”

The 49ers are moving forward with Brock Purdy as the starting quarterback. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has made it clear that he’s the team’s best option, considering he went undefeated as San Francisco’s starter during the regular season last year.

But while all signs point towards the idea that San Francisco should move on from Lance, they might just be better off keeping him.

Yes, it’s clear that Lance isn’t anywhere close to ready to lead a championship team. Heck, it looks he’s not even ready to be a starting quarterback.

But what do the Niners gain by trading Lance right now when he’s at his absolute lowest? Not only is his play shaky, it looks like he’s lacking confidence.

Mike Silver of The San Francisco Chronicle quoted an unnamed Raiders player — the Niners practiced against Las Vegas prior to their preseason game last week — who took a jab at Lance.

“He must have fumbled about six snaps,” the source told Silver. “It looks like he doesn’t have much confidence.”

This isn’t exactly surprising. Lance has had a rough go of things since being selected No. 3 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Not only did Lance play at a small FCS school in North Dakota State, he started just one season in 2019 before playing just one game during his final collegiate season in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

After being named the starting quarterback entering the 2021 season over proven veteran Jimmy Garoppolo, he suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2.

In other words, Lance hasn’t played a full season in four years.

That’s not only a major setback for a 23-year-old quarterback when it comes to development, it’s traumatic from a confidence standpoint.

The Niners reportedly received trade calls relating to Lance dating back to April.

Via Mike Florio of NBC Sports:

"At this year’s Scouting Combine, there were rumors of a potential Kirk Cousins trade from Minnesota to San Francisco," Florio wrote. "Those rumors may have come from the reality that the 49ers and Vikings had discussions about another quarterback. Per a league source, the two teams talked about Trey Lance."

NBC Sports Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco backed up the report that the Niners had been receiving trade interest in Lance. However, they weren’t interested in trading their young quarterback.

As raw as Lance looks, there’s little reason to trade him right now because San Francisco simply wouldn’t get much in return. With the exception of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, there are no quarterback competitions this preseason. Every other franchise is decided on their starting quarterback entering the 2023 season.

And let’s be real, the Buccaneers are not trading a high draft pick on Lance. If Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask flop, Tampa Bay is aiming for USC’s Caleb Williams in next year’s draft.

If the Niners decided to trade Lance right now, do you really think they would get a second-round pick in return? Heck, do we really think they’ll even get a third-round pick in return?

Lance has two years left on his rookie deal, one that sees him carry a $9.3 million cap hit for this season and a $10.9 million cap hit for next season. If the Niners were to trade Lance now, they would absorb a $5.5 million dead cap hit and save just $3.8 million for this season. They would also absorb a similar $5.5 million dead cap hit for the 2024 season.

Considering Purdy is returning from a serious UCL tear that sidelined him for six months, what would the advantage be in trading Lance? Even if he loses the backup quarterback competition against Sam Darnold, the Niners would still feature the deepest quarterback room in the NFL by retaining Lance. Remember, this is a team that went through four quarterbacks on their way to an NFC Championship Game appearance last season.

While everyone is jumping on Lance for his shortcomings, let’s keep things in perspective — the Niners shouldn’t trade Lance before the season.

Unless they can get a high draft pick in return, it would serve zero purpose to trade Lance when his value is declining with each rough practice and abysmal preseason performance.

Whether or not Niners fans like it, Lance will be a member of the 53-man roster heading into the season.