ICSC, the trade group representing malls, shopping centers, and other marketplaces, is predicting that holiday retail sales will be up 3.8% this year, and that food and beverage sales will grow by 7.6%.

Total spending for the season is expected to be $1.6 trillion.

The group also expects that a large share of that spending will occur in brick-and-mortar stores, and at shopping centers.

The holiday forecast, released today, is based on consumer surveys.

The forecast expects sales growth to be lower than the 2022 holiday season. Last year retail sales rose 5.3% in November and December, according to the National Retail Federation.

“This year’s forecast shows the industry is balancing itself out after rapid growth over the last few years, setting retailers up for another successful holiday season,” Tom McGee, president and CEO of ICSC, said, in a statement accompanying the report.

Key findings from the ICSC survey, which was conducted in late September, include:

The ICSC echoes other cautiously optimistic forecasts for the holiday season. Adobe ADBE two weeks ago released its prediction that online sales would grow by 4.8% this holiday season, outpacing last year’s gain of 3.5%.

Deloitte and PwC also have released upbeat outlooks for holiday spending.

Deloitte reported this week that its holiday survey found consumers are “back in the spirit of spending” with spending expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels.

PwC expects spending to be up 7%, with consumers spending an average of $1,530 on holiday purchases.

This week the Commerce Department reported stronger-than-expected retail sales growth in September, further fueling retailers hopes for a happy holiday season. Retail sales rose 0.7% month-over-month, more than twice the expected gain.

Stephanie Cegielski, vice president of research and public relations at ICSC, in response to questions about today’s release, said ICSC members are feeling positive heading into the holiday season.

“Physical retail has been doing quite well this year, and the core of the marketplace industry is healthy,” Cegielski said. “Several key industry indicators, including occupancy rates and announced store openings, remain quite strong,” she said, noting that announced store openings still outpace store closings.