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Forbes
Forbes
23 May 2023


Step of hand collect the money in shop store

Step of hand collect the money in shop store. Vector flat style

getty

The Q1 2023 earnings season is in full swing , leaving in its wake a mixed bag of results from America's retail behemoths. The titans of the industry, Amazon AMZN and Walmart WMT , raced ahead, while Target TGT , Home Depot, and Lowe's hit some stumbling blocks. All this against a backdrop of a retail industry trying to find its footing amidst shifting consumer behavior and a return to pre-pandemic trends.

According to the US Department of Commerce, retail sales grew by 3.6%, and e-commerce sales rose by 8% in Q1 2023 compared to the same quarter in 2022. A return to the norms of a decade pre-pandemic, when retail would grow at 4%, and e-commerce at 14.9% annually. This comes after an unusual year, from March 2021 through December 2022, when brick-and-mortar retail unexpectedly kept pace with, or even surpassed, e-commerce sales due to unique pandemic-driven consumer behaviors.

Amazon Holds News Conference

SANTA MONICA, CA - SEPTEMBER 6: The Amazon logo is projected onto a screen at a press conference on ... [+] September 6, 2012 in Santa Monica, California. Amazon unveiled the Kindle Paperwhite and the Kindle Fire HD in 7 and 8.9-inch sizes. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)

Getty Images

Amazon, the e-commerce giant, showed no signs of slowing down. Despite battling increasing competition, Amazon's Q1 US retail revenue grew by an impressive 11% compared to Q1 2022. Citi Research estimates that Amazon's Gross Merchandise Value likely grew 12% from the prior year, outperforming the industry average of 8% for e-commerce.

US-ECONOMY-EARNINGS-WALMART

The Walmart logo is seen outside a Walmart store in Burbank, California on August 15, 2022. - ... [+] Walmart, the largest retailer the United States, will report second quarter earnings on August 16, 2022. (Photo by Robyn Beck / AFP) (Photo by ROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

Walmart followed suit, standing tall with its Q1 earnings. The company's US same-store sales were up 7.4% vs last year, more than twice the industry average. Even more impressive, its e-commerce sales were up by a staggering 27%, more than three times the industry average.

US-ECONOMY-TARGET-MARKET

The logo is displayed on a Target store in Washington, DC, on May 18, 2022. - With European markets ... [+] also in retreat, major US indices took cues from Target, the North American-focused big-box retailer, which plunged around 25 percent after earnings missed expectations despite higher sales. (Photo by Stefani Reynolds / AFP) (Photo by STEFANI REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

However, while Amazon and Walmart were celebrating their victories, others found the going tough. Target's Q1 earnings showed a disappointing growth of 0.7% in comparable store sales and a decline of 3.4% in comparable digital sales. The company's bleak outlook for 2023, expecting a low-single-digit decline to a low-single-digit increase, reflects the struggles of the US consumer.

US-STOCKS-MARKETS-OPEN

A Home Depot store in Burbank, California is seen on February 18, 2019. - The home improvement ... [+] retail giant offered a weaker than expected outlook for fiscal 2019 when it reported its fourth quarter earnings February 26, 2019 leading stocks to weaken in early trading.Dow member Home Depot shed 3.2 percent as it projected slightly lower 2019 sales growth compared with last year. (Photo by Robyn Beck / AFP) (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

Home Depot's Q1 earnings were equally disheartening. The company reported its biggest revenue miss in two decades with a decline of 4.6% in same-store sales and a decline of 2.9% for digital sales compared to Q1 2022. Home Depot now expects sales and comparable sales to decline between 2% and 5% for the fiscal year.

Lowe's Logo

Close-up of the Lowe's Home Improvement company logo printed on a shopping cart in Dublin, ... [+] California, November 27, 2020. (Photo by Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images)

Gado via Getty Images

Finally, Lowe's, despite beating revenue expectations, followed a similar trajectory with a decline of 4.3% in comparable store sales. Although digital sales grew by 6% compared to a year ago, Lowe's also lowered its projections, expecting sales to decline by 2% to 4% this fiscal year.

All retailers are grappling with a noticeable shift in consumer spending patterns. As discretionary spending shrinks, consumers are prioritizing needs over wants. They're opting for fewer and smaller purchases and showing a renewed focus on value. It's not all doom and gloom, though. This consumer behavior presents an opportunity for retailers to reassess, innovate, and adapt to meet the changing demands of consumers. The coming quarters will indeed be a test of resilience, creativity, and agility for these retail giants. The battle for the US consumer's wallet continues.