Topline
A handful of bettors scored massive payouts upon the selection of the new leader of the Catholic Church, Robert Francis Prevost, who was considered a longshot candidate on increasingly popular prediction markets which allow users to wager on news events.
Robert Prevost appears for the first time as Pope Leo XIV.
On the blockchain-based site Polymarket, six users profited at least $20,000 on Prevost wagers, according to a publicly available ledger of all bets placed on Polymarket.
Leading those winners was a whopping $63,650.65 profit off of a $1,059.52 bet from a user named “JustPunched,” a more than 6,000% return on investment.
Polymarket rival Kalshi said one bettor on its platform received a $52,641 payout off of a $526 wager.
Prevost was a long-shot candidate on both sites before the church announced his selection, with just 1.6% and 1.8% market-implied odds of becoming the next pope as of 12 p.m. EDT on Thursday on Kalshi and Polymarket, respectively.
That means a $170 bet on Prevost at 12 p.m. would have netted a roughly $10,000 payout.
Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin was the betting favorite on both sites prior to the conclusion of the conclave.
$40.4 million. That was the total betting volume across Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s papal betting markets.
At least nine bettors on Polymarket lost $10,000 or more betting on Parolin’s selection.