Users on predictive betting website Polymarket have started wagering on Luigi Mangione, the suspect in the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, after he was arrested Monday—one of Polymarket’s latest forays into betting on news events, after the site rose to fame in this year’s presidential race.
PENNSYLVANIA, USA - DECEMBER 10: The suspect who allegedly killed the CEO of a major insurance ... [+]
Polymarket bets started appearing on the website shortly after Mangione was arrested in Pennsylvania and charged with murder after a days-long manhunt, with more than 10 bets holding thousands of dollars in volume by Tuesday morning—much smaller than the multibillion-dollar betting markets that existed for events like the presidential race.
A market with one of the highest trading volumes, at more than $100,000, is about whether an unconfirmed YouTube account with similar attributes to Mangione’s other profiles will release another YouTube video by Wednesday, referencing a video that circulated across social media platforms late Monday night from the account titled “The Truth”—the implied betting odds put it at less than 2% chance another will appear.
Another bet with about $79,000 in volume is about whether the unconfirmed YouTube channel is real: Polymarket’s betting odds say there’s about a 1% chance it’s real.
One bet with more than $98,000 in volume gives a 64% chance the suspect was “motivated by denied claims” or health insurance claims rejected by an insurance firm (police have not released a motive).
Many of the other bets are about other details in the case: what his alleged “manifesto” will say, when the manifesto might be released, if the suspect used a 3D printed gun in the murder, if he will be extradited to New York, if he will plead guilty to the charges and if he allegedly acted alone.
Polymarket launched in 2020 but grew in popularity during the 2024 election, as millions of dollars were cast in bets for the presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. More than $3 billion worth of trading volume went through the platform during the election. Betting odds regarding the presidential election were ultimately correct and gave Trump a more than 60% chance of winning through October. In November, the FBI raided the apartment of the founder, Shayne Coplan, after the election, but did not arrest or charge him.
Users do not create the betting markets unilaterally, Polymarket says. The company’s markets team starts the bets after fielding interest in topics and taking suggestions from users.
The manhunt for the suspected killer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was broken open Monday when Mangione was apprehended in Pennsylvania with what police called items that closely resemble details of the murder. Police later said he had a 3D-printed “ghost gun,” multiple pages of a “hand-written” manifesto that depicts “ill-will toward corporate America” and several fake IDs. It’s unclear how Mangione—who was denied bail—will plead. Mangione was born and attended school in Maryland, reportedly attended the University of Pennsylvania and was recently living in Hawaii. Several social media accounts have shared other potential details about his life, like his job and academic background. Mangione is suspected to be responsible for the “brazen, targeted attack” on Thompson near a hotel in midtown Manhattan, police said. Authorities say the masked gunman, identified in photos and security footage, shot Thompson several times and is believed to have fled the city by bus.