Nvidia will disclose its first financial results of the year Wednesday, delivering an eagerly awaited earnings report which will provide early indications of how it will emerge from the release of the less tech-intensive DeepSeek AI model from China, which led to the AI giant suffering the largest single-day market value loss in stock market history last month.
The Nvidia logo at its headquarters in Silicon Valley.
Nvidia will report earnings Wednesday at about 4:20 p.m. EST for its fourth fiscal quarter ending last month.
Its stock wavered ahead of the report, trading as low as $124.44 per share and dipping about 4% by 10:30 a.m. Tuesday, furthering Monday’s 3% loss.
This week’s losses come as tech stocks broadly pulled back amid growing investor anxiety about uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s economic agenda; the Nasdaq declined about 1% each of Monday and Tuesday as the index hit its lowest level since Feb. 3.
Nvidia, with a $3.1 trillion market cap, registered its cheapest intraday share price since Feb. 5 as the stock navigated an unusually down stretch, trading 12% below where it stood ahead of its most recent earnings report in November.
And the stock is down 10% over the last month during the DeepSeek selloff, as the market expressed concerns high-performing generative AI models which can run on less of Nvidia’s pricey semiconductor technology may lead to weaker sales for Nvidia.
Consensus analyst estimates call for Nvidia to report $38.1 billion in revenue and $0.85 adjusted earnings per share ($19.6 billion net income), according to FactSet data, all three of which would top records set the quarter prior. That equates to year-over-year revenue growth of 72% and profit growth of 64%, which is extremely robust expansion for a company of Nvidia’s size, but it would be the weakest top and bottom line growth for the company since the quarter that ended April 2023. The $33.5 billion forecasted sales in Nvidia’s datacenter unit, which encompasses the company’s graphics processing units (GPUs) powering most generative AI models, would mark 82% year-over-year growth, also the weakest growth in seven quarters. Despite the slowing pace, Nvidia’s growth remains impressive, dwarfing the 4% revenue and 10% profit expansion most recently reported by Apple, the only company with a higher market value than Nvidia. And analysts remain largely optimistic on Nvidia stock despite the recent holding pattern. The $175 average price target among the 68 analysts tracked by FactSet indicates 38% upside from Nvidia’s Tuesday share price. Wednesday’s earnings call “could mark the trough in investor sentiment,” predicted Bank of America analysts led by Vivek Arya, who are among the most outspoken Nvidia bulls on Wall Street with a $190 price target.
“Tomorrow is a massive day” for global markets which are “heavily skewed negative right now,” remarked Wedbush analysts led by Dan Ives in a Tuesday note.
The California-based Nvidia became the poster child of this decade’s AI revolution as the top designer of the technology training large-language models. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Nvidia will capture about 95% of the $158 billion global GPU market in 2025. Nvidia’s dominant market share led to its stock to take off, and it was the best-performing stock of 2023 and 2024 among stocks listed on the S&P for the entirety of those years. But Nvidia has not outperformed the broader market recently, dipping 3.1% over the last six months, worse than the benchmark S&P 500’s 6.9% return. Nvidia cofounder and CEO Jensen Huang, the 13th-richest person in the world, downplayed the negative investor reaction to the DeepSeek release, saying last week the idea AI spending will slow down is “complete opposite” of the truth.