Northern Lights Forecast: Geomagnetic Storm Could Bring Aurora Borealis To These States This Weekend
A geomagnetic storm is projected to affect the Earth over the weekend, likely pulling the northern lights further south after forecasters warned about the lingering effects of a recent coronal mass ejection, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Projections suggest auroral activity could increase in 2025 as activity on the sun’s surface ... [+]
A minor geomagnetic storm is expected on Jan. 4 and Jan. 5, according to NOAA’s three-day forecast, with an expected Kp index of 4.6 for either day, meaning aurora borealis will move further south and be “quite pleasing to look at” for those in the right areas.
The event could possibly impact satellite operations, cause power grid fluctuations and disrupt the navigation of migratory animals.
NOAA also warned of a minor solar radiation storm caused by a solar flare NASA said the sun emitted Friday, with some possible impacts on high-frequency radio, electric power grids and navigation signals.
The storm is likely the remaining effect from a coronal mass ejection—bubbles of plasma released from the sun’s surface—that left the sun on New Year’s Day, an event NOAA warned would produce a severe geomagnetic storm that would be a “major disturbance” in Earth’s magnetic field, pulling the northern lights as far south as Alabama and northern California.
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If the Kp index for Saturday and Sunday remains at just below five, most of northern Canada and Alaska will be able to view the northern lights. A view line for that Kp index—marking a “moderate” aurora—tends to drop below the Canadian border and as far south as northern Iowa, with a high likelihood of the aurora borealis being visible in northeastern Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan, according to NOAA. Areas in other states will have a lower chance of seeing the phenomenon, including Wyoming, South Dakota, Iowa, New York, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine.
The northern lights are best seen between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time while at a high vantage point away from light pollution, according to NOAA. If conditions are optimal, the colorful displays can be seen from as much as 620 miles away, the agency said.
Smartphone cameras are often more sensitive to the colors of aurora borealis and can capture the northern lights if night mode is enabled, according to NASA. If using a regular camera, National Geographic recommends using a wide-angle lens, high ISO value and focus set to the farthest possible setting.
A recent increase in auroral activity is expected to continue through 2025 and into 2026, after activity on the sun’s surface reached a “solar maximum” in October, according to NASA. Activity on the sun’s surface increases and decreases over 11-year periods, resulting in a “solar minimum” and a “solar maximum.” This peak increases the rate of space weather events like solar flares and coronal mass ejections, or bubbles of plasma that burst along with the flares. Electrons from those events interact with oxygen and nitrogen in the atmosphere, causing molecules and atoms of these gases to become “excited” before releasing small bursts of energy in the form of light. The strongest geomagnetic storm in two decades reached Earth in May, NASA said, resulting in likely the strongest northern lights displays in the “past 500 years.”
A pair of satellites launched by the European Space Agency in December are traveling toward a point in Earth’s orbit to study the sun’s corona, or outer atmosphere. The Proba-3 mission will create artificial solar eclipses for up to six hours at a time by blocking out the sun’s light, allowing the agency to study coronal mass ejections, why the sun’s corona is hotter than the sun’s surface and how solar winds accelerate. Both satellites will remain in orbit for the next two years before gradually returning to Earth’s atmosphere, and the first images from the mission are expected to be released in March.