Naoya Inoue is one of the best fighters in the world (he’s No. 3 on my pound-for-pound list), and though he’s the betting favorite for his fight vs. Stephen Fulton on Tuesday, this might very well end up as Inoue’s toughest test yet. Fulton, despite his underdog status even though he’s the defending junior featherweight champion, actually has a solid chance to pull out the win. Here’s everything you need to know about Naoya Inoue vs. Stephen Fulton, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

After winning the undisputed bantamweight championship by stopping Paul Butler last December, Inoue is moving up to the junior featherweight division. And he’s not taking a soft fight in his 122-pound debut. Instead, he’s going after the best fighter in the division.

Originally, this fight was scheduled for May, but Inoue had to postpone it because of an injury. Now, he’s ready to win a title in a new division.

“From here it will be a real challenge,” Inoue said on ESPN, via Boxing Scene. “I'm pushing the boundaries of my build, my limits. I really don't know what kind of fight this is going to be. I'm just going to do everything I can to win. If I get the chance, I'll go for a knockout, and if it doesn't go that way, I'll just focus on keeping my boxing solid to get that win.”

Inoue’s power (and whether it will have the same impact at his heavier weight division) is one of the biggest questions of the fight. Fulton showed a good chin against a heavy hitter like Brandon Figueroa, and even though Inoue has one of the best pure punches in the sport, Fulton’s technical skills are elite.

So, can he avoid Inoue’s power? And if he happens to taste it, can he stand up to it?

“I feel like my fighting style is very smart—an intelligent fighting style. I fight to my mood and however I am feeling,” said Fulton. “I like to do things others won't do. That's what takes a man to his next level and next height.”

Fulton has shown he’s willing to trade vs. a heavy hitter. Figueroa threw more than 1,000 punches against Fulton when they met in 2021, but Fulton landed 44% of his own power punches (a highly impressive percentage), which might have tilted a close fight his way.

Either way, Inoue believes in himself, whether he has to use his power or his other in-ring skills.

“I do think my boxing can win,” he said. “No matter my style, I just need to focus on winning.”

Here’s more info on the Naoya Inoue vs. Stephen Fulton showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on ESPN+ beginning at 4:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday.

Inoue was already a solid favorite when the fight was announced, but in the past few weeks, more of the money has come in on him. As of Sunday evening, Inoue was the -400 favorite (bet $400 to win $100), while Fulton was the +300 underdog (win $300 on a $100 wager). Considering that Inoue was originally -285 and Fulton was +215, the oddsmakers have continued to widen their odds. I could have seen betting Inoue’s money line at -285 but not at -400. On the other hand, if you like Fulton, his 3/1 odds continue to gain more value.

I’d rather take Inoue to win by stoppage at -110 (he’s +220 to win by decision), but I’d like it even more for him to win by stoppage between rounds 7-12 for +225. If you’re itching to bet on Fulton, I like the +450 you’d get for him winning by decision.

At 24-0 (21 KOs), there has only been once where Inoue was in true danger of losing his undefeated record. That was against future Hall of Famer Nonito Donaire in their first fight in what was the 2019 BWAA Fight of the Year. Otherwise, Inoue has been a KO machine, stopping Donaire in their rematch, Jason Maloney, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Juan Carlos Payano.

The biggest victory of Fulton’s (21-0, 8 KOs) career came in late 2021 when he beat the previously undefeated Figueroa by majority decision to unify the 122-pound titles. He followed that up seven months later by dominating Danny Roman. Another plus for Fulton: he’s beaten undefeated fighters in four of his last five contests.

Fulton is a great talent, but Inoue is special. He’s the kind of fighter who can get into the Boxing Hall of Fame on the first ballot, and I’m not sure the same can be said for Fulton. This will be an engaging fight, and Fulton certainly will have his moments. But Inoue’s body work will eventually wear down Fulton, and Inoue will stop him in the 11^th round.