Topline
The Department of Labor reported the number of Americans remaining on unemployment benefits multiple times rose to its highest level since 2021—indicating the labor market might be slightly softening, experts say, although largely remaining stable in the face of economic uncertainty.
About 1,974,000 Americans remained on unemployment rolls in June, the Department of Labor reported ... More
The number of Americans continuing to apply for unemployment benefits rose in June to its highest level since November 2021, with 1,974,000 receiving continuing claims, according to the Department of Labor’s most recent data released June 26, adjusted for seasonal discrepancies.
The number of Americans applying for new unemployment benefits decreased over the same period by about 241,500, while the economy added roughly 147,000 jobs in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics most recent report published on Thursday.
The most recent ADP Employment Report released on Wednesday found that private sector employment shrank by 33,000 jobs in June after months of declining growth.
And while jobs in some sectors, including construction, manufacturing and trade and transportation grew slightly, larger losses in the service-providing industries including education, professional services, and finance spurred negative job growth for the first time since March 2023, according to ADP’s data.
These figures have not seen major changes since January, Dr. Ioana Marinescu, an economics professor at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania told Forbes, which she said was “surprising given the turmoil that’s going on and the high level of policy uncertainty.”
“The fact that the continuing claims are rising more would mean that people are beginning to be unemployed for longer,” Marinescu told Forbes. “And so for that reason, if the economy is slowing down just a tiny bit, some of those people who maybe were unemployed for longer, now they might find it a tiny bit harder to get into the door.” Marinescu said the hiring outlook is also a bit tougher for more inexperienced workers trying to land a first job, such as recent college graduates.
One group that has seen a particularly tough job market are young people entering the workforce after finishing college. The unemployment rate for recent college graduates between the ages of 22 to 27 rose to 5.8% in the first quarter of 2025, according to data from the Federal Reserve. That’s much higher than the 2.7% unemployment rate for all college graduates, suggesting that entering the job market is getting harder for young people even if they have a four-year degree. The unemployment rate for recent college graduates rose steadily during the Great Recession, finally peaking at 7.9% in 2010. That figure trended downward for a decade, according to the Fed’s data, but spiked again when the COVID-19 pandemic hit in early 2020.
Marinescu said the numbers could point to a “slight slowdown” in the economy, but did not necessarily indicate a larger trend just yet, saying the shift was actually “surprisingly small” given the amount of economic policy uncertainty, citing data compiled by economists at Northwestern and Stanford. “I would expect that businesses would be a little more concerned about hiring.” Instead, hiring has remained fairly flat, albeit lower, than the previous year, Marinescu said.
Despite the stagnant numbers, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has resisted lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy, primarily citing economic uncertainty at least partially driven by President Donald Trump’s tariff policy implemented earlier this year. He also cited largely stable conditions in the labor market for keeping rates stable, telling reporters “the labor market is not crying out for a rate cut,” in June. “Overall, a wide set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment,” Powell wrote in his June 24 report to Congress. “The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures.” Powell pointed to the overall unemployment rate, which ticked down to 4.1% in June, as well as moderating wage growth on track to outpace inflation.