The Upper Midwest faces the threat of severe thunderstorms and “strong tornado potential” Monday afternoon, with the possibility of hail an inch or larger and wind more than 58 miles per hour in parts of the Midwest.

As of a 12:25 p.m. EDT severe weather outlook update, the greatest risks are centered in southeastern Minnesota, including the cities of Minneapolis, St. Cloud, Mankato and Rochester, and in western Wisconsin, including Eau Claire and La Crosse. Other cities like Duluth, Minnesota, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, Des Moines, Iowa, and Madison, Wisconsin, face an enhanced risk, while Milwaukee, Omaha, Nebraska, and Sioux City, Iowa, face slight risks. As of just before 4 p.m. EDT, most of southern Minnesota west of the Twin Cities was under a tornado watch—including Brown County, Jackson County, Lincoln County, McLeod County and more. Parts of northwestern Iowa and extreme southeastern South Dakota were also under a tornado watch.

The most dangerous period is likely the late afternoon, when “strong tornado potential should be maximized” and “scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well.” AccuWeather said the severe weather and tornado threat should calm down Monday night, but storms could hit the Chicago area Tuesday morning, and severe storms are expected to shift east and south through Thursday.

Monday’s storm risk follows storms in Nebraska and South Dakota that brought “hailstones as large as apples,” wind gusts reaching 75 miles per hour and one tornado, according to AccuWeather. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes have been occurring in the western High Plains since Thursday, and flash flooding and tornadoes have been an issue in the general plains over the last week. One person died as a result of flash flooding in Oklahoma on Saturday, four tornadoes were reported in New Mexico and Oklahoma, New Mexico and Texas all saw large hail, ABC News reported. Spring storms are not rare in the Midwest this time of year, The New York Times reported, and last week there were reports of hail as large as grapefruit in parts of the region.

The 2024 tornado season—which typically runs from March to June before the hurricane-associated tornado season begins in summer—was the “most active” in years, at least in part because of warmer temperatures. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the season was “historic” as it had the second-highest number of tornadoes since it began tracking in 1950. NOAA reported there were at least 1,796 tornadoes, including 1,032 by the end of May, confirmed last year, and six states—Illinois, Iowa, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma and West Virginia—broke their records for annual number of tornadoes. Although there were a high number of tornadoes last year, there were only 54 deaths related to tornadoes, which was below the 20-year average, NOAA reported.

This year has seen a higher-than-average amount of tornadoes through early April, with nearly 500 reported to NOAA from the start of the year through the first week of April. AccuWeather reported most of the tornadoes have been in the Southeast and Mississippi Valley, though there have been an “unusually high number of storms across the Midwest” so far. Tornadoes have been occurring regularly this season, too: There was a stretch of 12 days from March 26 through April 7 in which a tornado was reported every day.

The NWS warned that storms can move rapidly and advised people to take action as soon as warnings are issued. If a tornado warning is issued, it recommends moving to “a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.” During a severe thunderstorm, NWS recommends getting inside “a sturdy building immediately” and avoiding trees or large open rooms.

The Midwest and South, specifically Kentucky, suffered from extreme flooding earlier in April that resulted in at least 23 deaths, the Associated Press reported. During a weeklong period starting March 30, there were 157 tornadoes reported across the regions, and cities and states declared emergencies and ordered evacuations as rain from an atmospheric river caused rivers to swell. AccuWeather estimated the flooding and severe weather caused between $80 billion and $90 billion in economic loss and damages.

Multiday outbreak of severe storms, including large tornadoes, on tap for central US this week (Accuweather)

Severe Thunderstorms and Tornado Risk Threaten Midwest on Monday (New York Times)

7 Dead As ‘Catastrophic’ Storm System Slowly Moves Through South, Midwest (Forbes)