From most peoples’ perspective, the Miami Marlins have not had a very illustrious history. They’ve made the postseason exactly three times in 30 seasons, and one of them was a courtesy pass in the COVID-19 pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Heck, they’ve never won a division title and their franchise record for wins in a season is only 92. They’ve only reached the modest attendance total of two million three times, and haven’t even reached the one million mark since 2017.

But if counting championships is your only barometer for success measurement, then the Marlins have done just fine. Their other two forays to the postseason resulted in World Series titles in 1997 and 2003. So when the club is relevant, as they have been this season, seasoned baseball fans’ ears perk up and take notice.

The Fish currently stand at 53-39 and in playoff position in the National League. Hit machine Luis Arraez has led the offense, but the real headliners reside in a deep, talented starting rotation that is one of the best in baseball. Sandy Alcantara won the Cy Young last season, Jesus Luzardo should be in the hunt this time around, and Braxton Garrett isn’t far behind.

Until recently, there was a fourth member of the rotation who was on the verge of becoming must-see TV every time he took the mound. Eury Perez went 5-3, 2.36, in his first 11 MLB starts before being sent back to the minor leagues just prior to the All Star break.

Why, you might ask? Well, it’s a bit complicated. Perez, only 20 years old, had already thrown 84 1/3 innings this season, the most he’s ever thrown in a professional campaign, and the club felt it needed to pull back the reins a bit. Still, one has to assume that they’re not about to shut him down, and are instead trying to conserve innings now so that they might be able to use some later in the regular season stretch or even the postseason.

How good can Perez be? A bit of context is needed here. Each season I prepare an ordered minor league pitching prospect list based on performance and age relative to league and level. Perez ranked #7 on my 2021 and #3 on my 2022 lists. That’s pretty darned impressive - among regular current major league starters only Julio Urias has a clearly superior minor league track record, with the likes of Shane Bieber, Clayton Kershaw, Freddy Peralta, Jack Flaherty and Noah Syndergaard representing other fairly close matches. Among those hurlers, only Urias was as young for his level as Perez.

Then there’s his major league performance to date. The aforementioned 5-3, 2.36, record with a 61/17 K/BB in 53 1/3 innings only tells part of the story. Very quietly, Perez had a historic six-start run between May 28 and June 25, posting a 0.27 ERA with only one earned run allowed in 33 innings. Nothing fluky there, as he allowed but 20 hits and ran up a 38/9 K/BB over that stretch.

Now it ended with a thud in his next start, as he retired a single batter and allowed seven hits and six earned runs on July 1 against the big-boy Braves, but no matter - Perez is clearly ready for the game’s highest level.

But he’s back in Double-A. Let’s peel a couple layers back to get a better feel for Perez’ first go-around in the majors and assess some areas in which improvement might be needed.

Perez stands 6’8”, 220, and throws an overpowering fastball, which he throws quite often. He’s thrown it 44.5% of the time so far, with an average velocity of 97.6 mph. The slider has been his most frequently-used secondary pitch, with a 30.8% usage rate. The remaining 24.7% has been split fairly equally between his changeup and curve ball.

Perez’ K/BB profile has been quite good to date, especially for such a youngster. His 28.4% K rate is over a full standard deviation better than league average, while his 7.9% BB rate is in the league average range. He was even better in the minors, and obviously has significant upside in this area as he continues to develop.

His contact management performance has been almost exactly league average - a 98 Adjusted Contact Score - again, quite an impressive feat for his age - though there is a lot going on in this area, both positive and negative.

He has allowed loud fly ball (92.2 mph average exit speed, over a standard deviation harder than league average) and line drive (99.3 mph, over THREE standard deviations harder) contact, but very weak ground ball (81.1 mph, over a standard deviation weaker). Overall, his 89.0 mph average exit speed allowed is over a half standard deviation harder than league average. His average launch angle allowed of 17.5 degrees is quite high for a pitcher lacking a pronounced pop up tendency.

So he’s allowing a lot of fly balls (42.5% fly ball rate), and the liners that he has allowed have been extremely well struck. That’s a fairly risky batted ball population, though he’s survived to date.

His best pitch to date has clearly been his slider. It has a pitch-specific 20.7% whiff rate, over a full standard deviation higher than league average. It’s 77 Adjusted Contact Score is over a half standard deviation better. The pitch earns an “A” according to my formula used to grade out the arsenals of all regular starting pitchers at the end of each season. The 20-year-old already has a legit MLB out pitch.

His four-seam fastball hasn’t fared nearly as well. Though he’s thrown it 44.5% of the time, 63.5% of the hits and extra-base hits he’s allowed have been off of the pitch. He’s posted a 131 Adjusted Contact Score, over a half standard deviation worse than league average, and a 5.9% whiff rate, over a full standard deviation worse, on the pitch. He gets a “C” for his four-seamer.

While the game has been moving away from fastballs and toward breaking pitches in recent years, great pitchers tend to have great fastballs. Perez’ four-seamer has really good velocity, but still needs work as far as location and sequencing.

He hasn’t thrown his change and curve often enough to get even a mid-term grade at this point, but the signs are encouraging. He’s allowed a single base hit thus far on the two pitches, which have been thrown a combined total of 218 times. Perhaps he should use them a bit more and use his four-seamer less, while tightening up the command within the strike zone on the latter.

Eury Perez is a GREAT pitching prospect. The youngest ERA qualifiers in either league this season are likely to be FOUR years older than him. Even the highly successful Urias didn’t do so for the first time until age 24. Thus, the Marlins are right to take the long view, protect his health and do everything possible to help him reach his potential.

But pennant races are pennant races, and a handful of starts saved in July might translate into a few more in September/October. Perez has already shown flashes of brilliance, and there is an awful lot more in the tank. I’m willing to bet that his next showdown with the Braves’ powerful lineup goes a bit better.