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Forbes
Forbes
6 Oct 2023


leigh wood vs josh warrington odds records prediction

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - MAY 27: Leigh Wood punches Mauricio Lara during their WBA World Featherweight ... [+] Title Fight at AO Arena on May 27, 2023 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Nathan Stirk/Getty Images)

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Leigh Wood and Josh Warrington think of themselves similarly. Both feel like they’ve been underestimated in the past, and both have delighted in proving wrong whomever they feel like didn’t believe in their capabilities. On Saturday, they’ll clash with each other as Warrington tries to take Wood’s featherweight belt and make himself a three-time world titlist in the process. Here’s everything you need to know about Leigh Wood vs. Josh Warrington, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Several years ago, Wood delighted in taunting Warrington on social media even when Wood was fighting opponents with dismal records of 7-60 and 14-40-3 and Warrington was defending his 126-pound championship against former Fighter of the Year Carl Frampton.

All these years later, Wood doesn’t seem to feel bad about it. In fact, he thinks his past trash-talking makes for a good story now.

“I’ve been goading Josh for years, even sending him videos on Twitter when I was in ‘no man's land’ and not getting big fights or really getting a look in,” Wood said. “I was in a bad place and didn’t have a promoter. Now we’ve come full circle, where I’m the reigning champion and defending against Josh. It’s quite unbelievable.”

Warrington, meanwhile, was content to think about his past detractors and about how much he’s accomplished in his career.

“No one ever thought I'd win a commonwealth title, let alone be a two-time world champion,” Warrington said. “So, why can't I dream more? Why can't I dream to be a unified champion?”

First, he’ll have to win a title by knocking off Wood. Which won’t be an easy task. After knocking out Michael Conlan in the 2022 Fight of the Year, Wood got TKO’d by Mauricio Lara last February and lost his belt. Less than three months later, though, Wood—a more than 2/1 underdog—knocked down the overweight Lara in the second round and outfought him the rest of the night to win back his belt.

Considering Lara knocked out Warrington in 2021 (and then had a technical draw in their rematch), it’d make sense that Wood would have the mental edge over his opponent. He’s beaten Lara, after all, and Warrington hasn’t. But Wood doesn’t feel that way.

“In the Lara rematch, I felt sharp in between my ears and physically,” Wood said. “I feel those fights, with tiny little breaks while still training, has put me in a good position.

“I don’t take confidence from knowing Lara beat Josh and that I beat Lara. I take confidence in the fact that I know I’m the better fighter. It has taken me so long for me to prove this, and I’ve waited a long time for this fight to happen.”

Here’s more info on the Leigh Wood vs. Josh Warrington showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on DAZN beginning at 2 p.m. ET on Saturday.

leigh wood vs josh warrington odds records prediction

LEEDS, ENGLAND - AUGUST 1: Leigh Wood and Josh Warrington face off during a press conference ahead ... [+] of their WBA Featherweight World Title fight on August 1, 2023 in Leeds, England. (Photo by Mark Robinson/Matchroom Boxing via Getty Images)

Matchroom Boxing via Getty Images

Though Leigh Wood is the betting favorite, it seems like more people are putting their money on Warrington. Wood is the -225 favorite (bet $225 to win $100), while Warrington is the +175 underdog (win $175 on a $100 wager). But Wood’s money line has come down from -275, so if you like Wood, betting on him now will be a better deal than it was earlier in the week. I could see Wood knocking out Warrington, so I wouldn’t mind taking a risk on the +240 prop bet (though +125 for a Wood decision isn’t bad). If you like Warrington, there’s certainly some good value in him winning a decision at +333.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Wood to beat Warrington at -225, Terri Harper to beat Cecilia Braekhus by decision at -334 and Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez to beat Joe Smith Jr. at -400. If all those hit, you’d win $134 on a $100 wager. That’s not a great parlay value, so instead, if you took Wood to beat Warrington by decision at +125 and Ramirez to stop Smith at +110, you’d make a $514 profit on that same $100 parlay.

At 27-3 (16 KOs), you’re not alone if you wonder whether Wood is actually a world-class fighter. His losses to James Dickens and Gavin McDonnell don’t look great in retrospect since those two boxers haven’t progressed past the European level of competitiveness. But Wood showed plenty by beating Mauricio Lara in their rematch to win back his featherweight belt, and his victories against Michael Conlan and Can Xu were impressive.

Warrington’s run through Kiko Martinez, Lee Selby, Carl Frampton and Kid Galahad from 2017-19 was fantastic. But Warrington (31-2-1, 8 KOs) is 1-2-1 in his past four fights, and that has to be a cause for concern. He’s three years younger than Wood, but it seems like Warrington is a little worse for wear than his opponent.

This could be a fun fight and perhaps a Fight of the Year candidate. Neither has tremendous power, and both have plenty of resilience in their bodies. But Warrington’s time has passed, and Wood still has more to give. I like Wood to top Warrington in this all-British showdown by decision, somewhere in the 116-112 range.

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