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Forbes
Forbes
10 Jun 2023


josh taylor vs teofimo lopez odds records prediction

Josh Taylor, far left, and Teofimo Lopez, white jacket, had to be separated during their final press ... [+] conference before their junior welterweight title fight.

By Mikey Williams/Top Rank via Getty Images

Both Josh Taylor and Teofimo Lopez are ultra talented fighters who have won unified world titles and who have the skills to rule at the top of the 140-pound division. But both have plenty of questions to answer when they meet Saturday for Taylor’s junior welterweight title. Here’s everything you need to know about Josh Taylor vs. Teofimo Lopez, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Taylor has had a nice run at junior welterweight. He unified the titles by beating Regis Prograis in 2019, and he then knocked down Jose Ramirez twice en route to winning a close unanimous decision that earned him the undisputed championship.

But Taylor looked less-than-stellar against Jack Catterall in 2022 where he won a split decision (many observers believe Catterall should have been awarded the victory). Since then, Taylor has given up three of his belts and has been out of action. So yes, there are questions about him now that he’s 32.

Lopez, meanwhile, has battled with his mental health and turmoil in his personal life. After reaching his peak with a unified 135-pound title win vs. Vasiliy Lomachenko, he lost to George Kambosos. And Lopez hasn’t looked the same sense. He’s even questioned himself about whether he was still good enough to compete as an elite fighter.

For now, though, he’s talking tough.

“I worked my a** off,” Lopez said. “Eleven weeks of camp. This is going to be the best version of me. Practice makes improvement. We’ve improved since my last fight. We’re ready to put on a show. I’m going to be a two-time lineal world champion.”

But he’s also made controversial comments in the leadup to this bout, especially when he said he wanted to take Taylor’s life. He expanded on that on Thursday, going on a bizarre mini-sermon in which he said, “You aim at death for that's where life begins. Everybody is scared of death. I don't know why. We're all going to die, but at least if I die, I'm dying for something that means something and will last forever. That's what greats are all about."

Top Rank’s Carl Moretti said the promoter had to pay an extra $5,000 for special security during the final press conference on Thursday, and Lopez’s rhetoric hasn’t sat well with Taylor.

“He means what he says, and I mean what I say,” Taylor said. “There is genuine dislike here. He’s been disrespectful. I’m going to make him pay for his words on Saturday.”

Here’s more info on the Josh Taylor vs. Teofimo Lopez showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Teofimo Lopez vs Josh Taylor odds records prediction

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 27: Teofimo Lopez bleeds from a cut over his eye against George ... [+] Kambosos during their championship bout for Lopez’s Undisputed Lightweight title at The Hulu Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 27, 2021 in New York, New York. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

Getty Images

Taylor has been a betting favorite since this fight was announced, but his odds have widened this week. As of Friday afternoon, Taylor was the -210 favorite (bet $210 to win $100), while Lopez was the +160 underdog (earn $160 on a $100 wager). Considering Taylor was -175 earlier this week, I wouldn’t love getting less value on his money line. But Lopez was +135 so if you want to bet on him to win, his +160 now is not a bad gamble. Taylor is +225 to win by stoppage (vs. +160 to win by decision), but I like the +375 you’d earn by wagering on Taylor to win by stoppage in rounds 7-12 even better.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Taylor to beat Lopez at -210, Sunny Edwards to beat Andres Campos by decision at -550 and Jamie Munguia to stop Sergiy Derevyanchenko at +120. If all those bets hit, you’d earn a $284 profit on a $100 wager.

Taylor (19-0, 13 KOs) has beaten six-straight undefeated opponents, including Regis Prograis, Jose Ramirez and Ivan Baranchyk. But Taylor was lucky to escape with a disputed victory vs. Catterall, and he hasn’t fought in 16 months. Will that inactivity give Lopez an advantage?

Lopez’s peak thus far has come in 2019 (when he destroyed Richard Commey) and 2020 (when he outlasted and knocked off Vasiliy Lomachenko, then the world’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter). Since then, though, Lopez (18-1, 13 KOs) has had a difficult time, falling in an upset to George Kambosos and looking only so-so against Sandor Martin last December. Taylor has beaten a top-level fighter like Taylor before. Can he do it again?

Lopez might be slightly more explosive (and maybe slightly more talented) than Taylor. But Taylor is tough, and during the buildup of this bout, it’s unclear whether Lopez is in a good spot with his mental health. Lopez and Taylor will fight on even terms for much of the fight, but Taylor will eke out a close decision by winning the final few rounds, somewhere in the 115-113 range.