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Forbes
Forbes
19 Jul 2023


Chicago Bears v Las Vegas Raiders

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - OCTOBER 10: Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears throws under pressure during ... [+] the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on October 10, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

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The ball is in Justin Fields’ court. It is teed up for him to land a contract extension that could exceed $40 million a year over at least four seasons, and probably longer.

Forgive the mixed metaphors, the point is this: The upcoming season is crucial for both Fields and the Chicago Bears, if not necessarily their general manager, Ryan Poles and head coach, Matt Eberflus.

Poles and Eberflus inherited Fields from the regime they replaced. It was Ryan Pace who traded up to select Fields with the 11th pick in the 2021 draft, with Matt Nagy the head coach who assisted in the selection.

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Poles and Eberflus have invested a ton of time and resources in the 24-year-old quarterback, who has a 6-21 record as an NFL starter. They have significantly upgraded the offense around him — using draft capital on offensive linemen and targets, including D.J. Moore — and believe Fields can have a Jalen Hurts-style breakout this season.

It can’t be overstated how huge the stakes are for Fields.

If he becomes productive as a passer, as he was when he carried Ohio State to a national championship showdown against Trevor Lawrence in 2018, Fields will position himself for one of those king-size contracts the NFL reserves for elite quarterbacks.

He’s in the third season of a four-year, rookie contract worth about $18.9 million, which breaks down to a $5.1 million cap in 2023. Eleven quarterbacks currently are paid at least $40 million a year, with Hurts and Lamar Jackson above $50 million.

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With Pat Mahomes (10 years, $450 million) at the top, seven quarterbacks (Jackson, Hurts, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson) have deals on the book with a value of at least $230 million. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa join Fields in the line of quarterbacks awaiting huge deals.

The Bears are positioned to pay Fields accordingly. Poles has created cap room by trading veterans and mostly building through the draft. The Bears currently have an NFL-high $31.6 million of cap space, per Spotrac, and figure to have more than $80 million to spread around in 2024.

Negotiations with Fields and his agents from Athletes First could dominate the news cycle in the off-season. But it’s up to Fields to show he is more than just a lottery ticket with a quick-twitch motor and rare elusiveness. He finished seventh in the NFL with 1143 rushing yards last season (ranked between Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey) but Pro Football Focus ranked him 35th among 39 qualifiers as a passer.

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Fields got off only 21.2 passes per game while being sacked a league-high 55 times last season. He completed 60 percent for 2242 yards and 17 touchdowns while being intercepted 11 times. Those aren’t the kind of totals that are encourage new Bears president Kevin Warren to sign over the team’s long-term future through a massive Fields contract.

But anyone paying attention knows Fields has been dealt a losing hand the last two seasons. Poles added Moore in the trade that sent the first overall pick to Carolina (a deal that signaled the team’s willingness to give Fields another season to establish himself as a complete quarterback), No. 2 receiver Chase Claypool with a pick from the Roquan Smith trade and selected University of Cincinnati wide receiver Tyler Scott in the fourth round. Tight end Robert Tonyan, who got 11 touchdown passes under offensive coordinator Luke Getsy with the 2020 Green Bay Packers, was signed as a free agent to complement Cole Kmet.

The Bears similarly appear to have improved their offensive line. Poles signed guard Nate Davis as a free agent and drafted massive tackle Darnell Wright to start at right tackle opposite second-year left tackle Braxton Jones. They’re counting on the continued development of Teven Jenkins (graded third among guards by PFF PFF last season), the health of center Cody Whitehair and the versatility of Lucas Patrick to give Fields enough protection he can buy time to find open receivers.

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There are no guarantees, of course. The Bears signed a wild card quarterback in Tyson Bagent, who passed for 17,034 yards and 159 touchdowns at tiny Shepherd University, located an hour outside of Washington, D.C. He’ll get lots of playing time behind Fields and backups P.J. Walker and Nathan Peterman in exhibition games, and could open eyes.

USC quarterback Caleb Williams has drawn comparisons to Patrick Mahomes and heads the quarterback class for the 2024 draft. North Carolina’s Drake Maye, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Texas’ Quinn Ewers could also be attractive options if the Bears decide not to extend Fields.

Poles is holding two first-round picks for ’24 and an extra second-round pick in ’25. He could use those to move up in the draft for a quarterback, if he feels he has a need. He and Eberflus would almost certainly be allowed a mulligan, as Fields was Pace’s pick, not theirs.

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Fields hopes to end that conversation before it even begins.