The Atlantic hurricane season continues to be active as we enter the second week of October. Tropical Storm Jerry has formed over the Atlantic Ocean, and nameless coastal storm will take shape off the eastern coast of the United States. Both of these storms need to be watched carefully. Meanwhile in the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Priscilla and another storm loom. Here’s why U.S. meteorologists, even in the midst of a government shutdown, will be quite busy this week.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Jerry will not affect the U.S. mainland, but that does not mean it is not a threat. NHC wrote on Tuesday evening, “The storm remains far from land, roughly 900 miles east of the Windward Islands. All of the satellite intensity estimates have increased…. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Jerry tomorrow.”
As the storm moves westward, it is predicted to pass just north of the Leeward Islands by later in the week. NHC went on to say, “The best-performing models show the core of Jerry missing the northern Leeward Islands, however, there are some GFS, ECMWF, and Google Deep Mind ensemble members that pass very near or over the islands.” In other words, it will be close enough that the Virgin Islands, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, and Sint Maarten should be on alert. The storm is likely to intensify to hurricane strength, so many of these islands are already under a Tropical Storm Watch.
Closer to home, residents along the U.S. East Coast should pay attention to a nameless low pressure system that will develop off the coast. The Nor’easter is expected to impact weather along the East Coast for the next several days and into the weekend. According to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center discussion on Tuesday evening, "The consensus continues to favor coastal cyclogenesis off the Carolinas Friday night that drifts northward to at least the southern Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend." By the way, cyclogenesis is a jargon term in my field that means formation of a cyclone or low.
There is some uncertainty in the weather model guidance, however. WPC cautioned, “Uncertainty really increases after Sunday…. Some guidance pulls it northward and spins off the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast coast, while other models actually pull it back southward.” The official forecast favors a compromise position near the Carolina coast.
It may look like a tropical system, but it will be a mid-latitude cyclone with some potential tropical characteristics. Irrespective of whether the storm has a name, it will have the potential to produce wind gusts in excess of tropical storm criteria and some gusts could exceed hurricane criteria. The Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic region should expect windy conditions, high surf, beach erosion, and some coastal flooding.
What’s going on? A major dip in the jet stream will help strengthen the low. As the trough of low pressure plunges southward and a frontal system moves through, cool conditions can be expected into Florida by the end of the weekend. Georgia and Florida coastal communities could also experience windy conditions, high surf, and beach erosion.
As this activity spins up on the East Coast, the U.S. West Coast will need to pay attention to their own weather circumstances. WPC expects an upper level low near the California and Oregon border to affect moisture flow into the Southwest from what is currently Hurricane Priscilla. To top that office, there is likely another tropical system behind that storm.
