Egg prices are expected to increase more than 20% in the coming year at least in part due to the highly pathogenic bird flu that is limiting poultry supply in the U.S.—and the rising cost of eggs and limited supply led to Waffle House announcing a temporary per-egg surcharge.
Customers exit a Waffle House restaurant as the moon sets on March 29, 2021 in Bessemer, Alabama.
Egg prices increased more than 8% from November to December, according to the Consumer Price Index, and the average cost of one dozen Grade A large eggs in December across the U.S. was $4.15—up from $2.52 at the start of 2024.
Experts say the increases will likely continue as long as outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which began in 2022 and brought record-high egg prices—reaching an average of $4.82 per dozen in January 2023—persist.
Retail egg prices will “continue to experience volatile month-to-month changes” throughout the year and are expected to increase a total of 20.3%, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its 2025 food price outlook.
The avian flu forces farmers to kill their entire flock to help limit the spread if the flu is found on a poultry farm, the Associated Press reported, and more than 145 million chickens and other birds have been killed since the outbreak began.
On Monday, breakfast chain Waffle House implemented a $0.50 surcharge per egg, citing the “dramatic increase in egg prices” due to bird flu and saying “consumers and restaurants are being forced to make difficult decisions.”
In a statement to Forbes, Waffle House said it will continuously monitor egg prices and “will adjust or remove the surcharge as market conditions allow,” but that it “cannot predict how long this shortage will last.”
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36.8%. That’s how much higher egg prices were in December 2024 than the previous December, according to the Consumer Price Index released Jan. 15.
Ahead of November’s presidential election in which President Donald Trump defeated then-Vice President Kamala Harris, Republicans made inflation and how costs had risen under then-President Joe Biden a focal point. Voters largely trusted Trump over Harris to handle the economy, and inflation was a primary issue for many voters: The Associated Press reported about 9 in 10 voters “were very or somewhat concerned about the cost of groceries” and many were still hurting from when inflation hit a four-decade high in mid-2022. When he was campaigning, Trump promised he would end the “inflation nightmare” and bring prices down “very quickly,” though economists warned Trump’s plans of imposing tariffs and deporting workers would not help lower costs for Americans. When asked on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Jan. 26 whether grocery prices would come down, Vice President JD Vance said “prices are going to come down, but it's going to take a little bit of time.” Democrats, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., have already jumped on Trump and Vance for not yet lowering prices, writing in a letter to the president on Jan. 26 that he “repeatedly promised” to “lower food prices ‘immediately’ if elected president,” but instead he has “focused on mass deportations and pardoning January 6 attackers,” NBC News reported. Trump’s team pushed back on the criticism and said his actions to “unleash American energy” will drive costs for American families down nationwide.
Some stores and retailers have begun implementing limits on how many cartons of eggs can be bought at once. Market Basket stores in two Massachusetts cities have capped egg sales at two cartons per family, CBS News reported, and The New York Times reported some other stores, including Whole Foods, have begun limiting egg purchases. Southeastern grocery chain Publix told 11Alive in Georgia that some egg items have a limited availability because of the rise in egg demand, and grocery chain Lidl US told the outlet they’ve placed an egg limit in their stores nationwide. “The following egg brands sold at Lidl US stores are currently limited to 2 per customer to ensure fair distribution: Green Valley, Simpson’s Eggs, and Puglisi’s Farm,” Lidl told the news station. Earlier in January, Axios reported Trader Joe's, Harris Teeter and Whole Foods locations in the Washington, D.C., area were “asking customers to exercise restraint when buying eggs,” with at least one Whole Foods limiting people to three dozen eggs.
Bird flu refers to the disease caused when an animal or person is infected with avian flu Type A viruses, though it is typically spread between birds and not people. HPAI viruses related to the ongoing outbreaks were first detected in wild aquatic birds, commercial poultry and backyard flocks of poultry in the U.S. beginning in January 2022, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The early 2022 detections were the first time the viruses were found in the U.S. since 2016. Since 2022, every state has been affected by the illness and there have been more than 1,464 poultry outbreaks reported to the CDC. The virus spreads through the mucous, saliva or poop of infected animals.
Bird flu is impacting dairy and poultry throughout the U.S., though some areas have more cases. As of Jan. 24, there were eight bird flu outbreaks across California, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri and Indiana that had resulted in the loss of 8.3 million birds. That loss accounted for 3.6% of the conventional caged layer flock and 1.5% of the non-organic cage-free flock, according to the USDA’s Egg Market Overview.
Officials reported the new strain of bird flu was found in a commercial duck meat farm in Merced County, California, in late November according to a report filed with the World Organization for Animal Health this week. More than 118,000 birds were killed and disposed of, according to the report. It’s the first time the strain was detected in the U.S. The Washington Post reported the strain isn’t a grave threat to humans now, but scientists worry the spread of multiple bird flu strains along with other illnesses could produce a version that spreads more easily person-to-person.
Yes, though it’s not too common. People who get bird flu usually get it through “direct unprotected contact … with infected birds or other infected animals,” the CDC said. Most human cases in the U.S. have been mild and there has been no person-to-person spread traced here, but the U.S. did record its first severe human case of bird flu in Louisiana in December, and the patient later died.
Though bird flu taking out thousands of egg-laying hens is greatly impacting the price of eggs, it’s not seeming to make a big difference on the price of chicken. The cost of chicken was up just 1.2% year-over-year, and just 0.3% from November to December.
A bird flu variant has been spreading through cattle and livestock in the U.S., as well, since April, when the Food and Drug Administration said some samples of pasteurized milk had remnants of H5N1. The outbreak among cattle led to officials in California declaring a state of emergency and suspending the sale of raw milk from a leading raw farm because bird flu was detected in its samples.
How much egg prices have jumped this month. The next Consumer Price Index will be released on Feb. 12 and will detail how much the prices of eggs, poultry and more rose from December to January.
Egg prices are soaring. Don't expect that to change anytime soon (Associated Press)
First Bird Flu Death Reported In US (Forbes)
Democrats slam Trump for not making good on promise to ‘immediately’ lower food prices (NBC News)