Democrats face a tough challenge in maintaining control of the Senate in the 2024 election, when they’ll have 23 seats on the ballot, including three in states that voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020, while Republicans are defending just 11 seats, all in states Trump won.
Arizona Republican U.S. Senate candidate and far-right election denier Kari Lake listens as U.S. ... [+]
Arizona: Former gubernatorial candidate and Trump ally Kari Lake is challenging progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego for the seat held by independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who defected from the Democratic Party in December 2022 and is not running for reelection—likely to be a close race, will some early polls showing Gallego has a lead over Lake in the once-solidly red state.
Ohio: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown will face Republican businessman Bernie Moreno in the November election in one of three Democrat-held Senate seats on the ballot in states Trump won in 2020, with early surveys showing Brown has a five-point edge over the Trump-endorsed Moreno, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average.
Montana: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is vying for a fourth term in the Republican stronghold that voted to elect Trump in 2020 by 16 points—and he faces a tough challenge from likely GOP nominee Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer, former Navy SEAL and aerospace entrepreneur backed by Trump and the Republican National Senatorial Committee.
West Virginia: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement announcement in November effectively handed control of the solidly red-state seat to Republicans, with Trump-backed Gov. Jim Justice the strong favorite to win in November.
Michigan: The state has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1994, but experts think Democrats only have a slight edge in this year’s race for the open seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, with Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leading her primary competitors by double digits while Trump-endorsed Republican Rep. Mike Rogers is locked in a crowded primary race against former Reps. Peter Meijer and Justin Amash.
Pennsylvania: Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, facing two longshot primary challengers, has described the general election race as “close” and “tough,” though polls show him leading his likely Republican challenger, former Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormick, by an eight-point average, according to RealClearPolitics, in the state that delivered Democrats a key 2022 Senate win.
New Jersey: Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez’s indictment on federal bribery charges has prompted the deep blue state’s first contested primary for his seat in 10 years, and while he has not said whether he will seek re-election, a January poll shows him with less than 10% of support among likely Democratic primary voters, and Rep. Andy Kim leading the state’s first lady, Tammy Murphy, by 12 points, though 31% of voters said they’re undecided.
Utah: Sen. Mitt Romney, a longtime Trump critic, announced in September he would not seek re-election, expressing discouragement about the prospects of serving another term with either Trump or President Joe Biden in the White House and setting up a crowded primary race for the solidly red seat, with a December Salt Lake Tribune poll showing Rep. John Curtis with a 29-point lead over former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson.
Wisconsin: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is likely to face businessman Eric Hovde, who lost the 2012 Senate GOP primary, in a race Cook Political Report rates as leaning Democratic—Hovde has the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, whose chair recently described Wisconsin as ripe territory for Republicans to CBS, as it’s the only state Trump lost in 2020 where a GOP Senate candidate won in 2022.
Nevada: Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is likely to face Afghanistan war veteran Sam Brown in the November general election that’s expected to be one of the most expensive Senate races in the state’s history, with Brown reporting a major fundraising edge over the crowded field of primary contenders and Rosen sitting on a record-breaking war chest, the Reno Gazette Journal reported—the race is another that leans toward Democrats, but a recent poll shows Rosen leads Brown by just one point.
- Most of those races won’t be competitive, though, with incumbent candidates expected to cruise to reelection. Three of the races—in Ohio, Montana and Arizona—are rated toss-ups by Cook Political Report, and another four in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada lean Democratic.
Democrats held on to control of the Senate by a narrow two-seat margin in the 2022 midterm, when Trump-preferred Republican picks lost a string of closely watched races in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania—leading to significant backlash against the former president. Legislative business in the Senate has largely been at a standstill during this session of Congress as the Republican-controlled House has consistently blocked any legislation that would have a chance of passing the Senate, and vice versa. Trump has regained his hold over the party since the 2022 midterm and has secured the party’s nomination, with endorsements from almost two-thirds of the Senate conference.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who is not up for reelection this year, announced in February he is retiring from his post as the longest serving Senate leader in history. He endorsed Trump in early March, despite publicly feuding with the former president since the Jan. 6 Capitol riots. McConnell did not mention Trump in announcing his retirement as Senate GOP leader, but the move was widely seen as symbolic of the party’s shift away from the traditional conservatism McConnell represented to one beholden to Trump’s divisive brand of populism. If Trump wins the 2024 election, he is expected to play an outsized role in selecting the Senate’s next GOP leader.
Eight senators—five Democrats, one independent and two Republicans—have announced they will not seek re-election this year.