Democrats face a tough challenge in maintaining control of the Senate in the 2024 election, when they’ll have 23 seats on the ballot, including three in states that voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020, while Republicans are defending just 11 seats, all in states Trump won.
Arizona Republican U.S. Senate candidate and far-right election denier Kari Lake listens as U.S. ... [+]
Arizona: Former gubernatorial candidate and Trump ally Kari Lake is challenging progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego for the seat held by independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who defected from the Democratic Party in December 2022 and has not said whether she will run for reelection—it is likely to be a close race, and while Gallego has a lead over Lake in some early polls of the once-solidly red state, the race could be shaken up if Sinema also runs.
Ohio: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is likely to face Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, who is expected to win the March 19 GOP primary, according to polls that show Moreno and Brown in a near-tie in a general election matchup.
Montana: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is vying for a fourth term in the Republican stronghold that voted to elect Trump in 2020 by 16 points—and he faces a tough challenge from likely GOP nominee Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer, former Navy SEAL and aerospace entrepreneur backed by Trump and the Republican National Senatorial Committee.
West Virginia: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement announcement in November effectively handed control of the solidly red-state seat to Republicans, with Trump-backed Gov. Jim Justice the strong favorite to win in November.
Michigan: The state has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1994, but experts think Democrats only have a slight edge in this year’s race for the open seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, with Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leading her primary competitors by double digits while Republican Rep. Mike Rogers is locked in a crowded primary race against former Reps. Peter Meijer and Justin Amash.
Pennsylvania: Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, facing two longshot primary challengers, has described the race as “close” and “tough,” though polls show him leading his likely Republican challenger, former Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormick, by 10 points in the state that delivered Democrats a key 2022 Senate win.
California: Nobody seriously expects a Republican to win late Sen. Dianne Feinstein's seat in this solid blue state, but Republican ex-Dodgers first baseman Steve Garvey could snag one of the two spots on the general election ballot, as polls of Tuesday's primary race (likely a low-turnout affair) show Garvey in first place, followed by Rep. Adam Schiff—possibly leaving Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee out of the running.
New Jersey: Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez’s indictment on federal bribery charges has prompted the deep blue state’s first contested primary for his seat in 10 years, and while he has not said whether he will seek re-election, a January poll shows him with less than 10% of support among likely Democratic primary voters, and Rep. Andy Kim leading the state’s first lady, Tammy Murphy, by 12 points, though 31% of voters said they’re undecided.
Utah: Sen. Mitt Romney, a longtime Trump critic, announced in September he would not seek re-election, expressing discouragement about the prospects of serving another term with either Trump or President Joe Biden in the White House and setting up a crowded primary race for the solidly red seat, with a December Salt Lake Tribune poll showing Rep. John Curtis with a 29-point lead over former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson.
- Most of those races won’t be competitive, though, with incumbent candidates expected to cruise to reelection. Three of the races—in Ohio, Montana and Arizona—are rated toss-ups by Cook Political Report, and another four in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada lean Democratic.
Democrats held on to control of the Senate by a narrow two-seat margin in the 2022 midterm, when Trump-preferred Republican picks lost a string of closely watched races in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania—leading to significant backlash against the former president. Legislative business in the Senate has largely been at a standstill during this session of Congress as the Republican-controlled House has consistently blocked any legislation that would have a chance of passing the Senate, and vice versa. Trump has regained his hold over the party since the 2022 midterm and is the GOP’s presumptive nominee, with endorsements from almost two-thirds of the Senate conference.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who is not up for reelection this year, announced Wednesday he is retiring from his post as the longest serving Senate leader in history. McConnell, who has dealt with health issues in recent years that have fueled speculation about his retirement, has publicly feuded with Trump since the Jan. 6 Capitol riots, and the two have not spoken since. While McConnell did not mention Trump in announcing his retirement as Senate GOP leader, the move was widely seen as symbolic of the party’s shift away from the traditional conservatism McConnell represented to one beholden to Trump’s divisive brand of populism. If Trump wins the 2024 election, he is expected to play an outsized role in selecting the Senate’s next GOP leader.
Seven senators—five Democrats and two Republicans, including Utah Sen. Mitt Romney —have announced they will not seek re-election this year.