Kyle Hendricks and his world-class changeup are back. That’s great news for the Cubs in the short term, especially if they can grab a Wild Card spot into the postseason, but it is an unexpected complication for the 2024 payroll.

While Hendricks was working to repair a capsular tear in his right shoulder last winter, Cubs president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer added free agents Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly to multi-year contracts. The deals with Taillon (4 years, $68 million) and Smyly (2 years, $19 million) follow a three-year, $71 million agreement with Marcus Stroman before the 2022 season.

Stroman had been expected to opt-out of his deal a year early but that’s not so clear cut anymore. He has been out of the rotation since August 2 with hip and rib injuries, returning last week in a limited role out of the bullpen.

Stroman, Taillon and Smyly are due to earn a combined $47.5 million in 2024. Hendricks will receive $16 million if the Cubs exercise the option in the four-year, $55.5 million deal he signed in the spring of 2019.

That’s $63.5 million for four veteran starters in a rotation that is now anchored by third-year left-hander Justin Steele, a Cy Young candidate. He’s become an extension candidate himself heading into his first crack at salary arbitration.

You always need more than five starters, sure. But a front five of Steele, Hendricks, Stroman, Taillon and Smyly could make it tough to get starts for a young arms like Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Cade Horton and Caleb Killian, not to mention any talented prospects Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins might be able to add in the off-season.

There was little reason to expect Hendricks to bounce back from the capsular tear as well as he did. He appeared to be deteriorating long before the injury, compiling a 4.78 ERA over 48 starts in 2021 and ’22. It’s likely some of the downturn was related to the shoulder injury but diminished velocity and results made it look like this would be a farewell season for Hendricks, who started Game 7 in the 2016 World Series.

Hendricks took his time building back strength after declining to have surgery to repair the tear. He stayed in Arizona at the end of spring training, then made five starts in Triple-A before returning to Wrigley Field on May 25.

His first three starts were predictable up-and-down but he turned the corner on June 10 in San Francisco. Hendricks got within four outs of a no-hitter before allowing a Mitch Haniger double. That no doubt gave him a badly needed shot of confidence, and he is 6-7 with a 3.77 ERA heading into his final two starts of the regular season. Hendricks has worked five-plus innings in 19 of his 22 starts, including his last nine.

The key, unsurprisingly, is a return to form with his state-of-the-art velocity. He’s gained some velocity too, with his fastball velocity (87.6) only down about one mile per hour from ’16. But his changeup is once again the same kind of weapon it’s been throughout his career.

Hendricks had gone away from the changeup in ’21 and ’22 — was the shoulder barking especially loud when he threw it? — but this season is throwing 40.3 percent changeups, a career high. He has held opposing hitters to a .168 average on the changeup, which he’s throwing with more spin (2157 rpm) than he had on it a year ago, according to Statcast.

There’s no reason to think he shouldn’t be able to do it again in 2024. It will be a shock if the Cubs decline his option, which would trigger a $1.5 million payment.

Winning teams generally have an abundance of starting pitching. The Cubs should have that if they wind up with Hendricks and Stroman pitching alongside Steele and Taillon.

Hoyer could probably find an off-season taker for Smyly, who has pitched with five teams the last five seasons. But it doesn’t look like Hendricks or Stroman are going anywhere. The Cubs are going to have to be very creative if they chase any free agent pitching this winter.