Vice President Kamala Harris heads into the final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign boosted by a surge in enthusiasm among Democrats, a massive turnaround after former President Donald Trump had an edge just months ago, polls show—momentum that could attract voters who would have otherwise sat out the election or reluctantly voted for Trump.
Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, and U.S. President Joe Biden ... [+]
Excitement among Harris voters now outpaces excitement among Trump voters, according to an Aug. 25-28 USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters that found 68% of Harris supporters are “very excited” to vote for her, compared to 60% of Trump voters.
In June, before Harris launched her campaign, just 30% of President Joe Biden’s supporters said they were “very excited” about voting for him, compared to 59% of Trump supporters who said the same about the former president, USA Today/Suffolk polling found.
An Aug. 1-20 Gallup survey also found the share of Democratic voters and voters who lean Democratic who say they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about the election now outpaces enthusiasm among Republican voters and voters who lean Republican, 78% to 64%.
The Gallup findings represent a stark shift from March, when 55% of Democrats and Democratic learners said they were “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting, versus 59% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters.
The surge in excitement among Harris supporters has led to an all-time high in enthusiasm among all voters (69%) during a presidential election cycle since Gallup began taking the measurement in 2000.
Voters in both parties are relatively excited, Gallup found: Enthusiasm among Democratic voters is one point below the all-time high it reached during the 2008 primary between former President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while Republican enthusiasm is nearing the 70% record high it reached in August 2020, during Trump’s re-election campaign.
Harris and Trump will debate for the first time on Tuesday, Sept. 10, at 9 p.m. EDT, on ABC News.
“The party with the higher net-enthusiasm score at the end of a presidential campaign usually sees their candidate win,” Gallup wrote in April. “This is likely because partisan enthusiasm at that point in the election cycle is closely tied to their candidates’ position in the pre-election polls—the better their party’s candidate is doing, the more enthusiastic they feel about voting.”
Harris has erased Trump’s national polling lead since her entrance into the race, but by a narrow margin, while some swing state polls still show Trump with an edge. At least nine polls taken since the Democratic National Convention, including the one by USA Today/Suffolk, show Harris beating Trump, though the size of her lead remains largely unchanged since the DNC. She is beating him by 3.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average and by 1.8 points in RealClearPolitics’ polling average. Harris has made significant gains in polls among demographic groups that typically lean Democrat, but were less supportive of Biden than they were in 2020, including young voters, and Black, Asian and Hispanic voters. Trump narrowly led in most national polls before Biden dropped out, but many voters were unenthused about the election, leading pundits to argue the race might be decided by “double haters” who were unhappy with both major candidates—and could reluctantly vote for either Biden or Trump.
Harris has also made significant gains when it comes to voter confidence in specific issues. On the economy, voters favor Trump versus Harris by six points, according to the USA Today/Suffolk poll, compared to Trump’s 14-point advantage over Biden in June. Trump is favored by three points on immigration, compared to his 13-point lead over Biden. Trump leads Harris by four points on national security and U.S.-China relations, down from his 10-point lead over Biden in June.
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads By 6 Points In Latest Likely Voter Survey (Forbes)