Vice President Kamala Harris surpassed Former President Donald Trump as the bookmakers’ favorite to win the presidential election on Thursday, as she closed off the final night of the Democratic National Convention with a speech calling for a “new way forward.”
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris greets delegates during the Democratic ... [+]
According to the tracker Election Betting Odds, which consolidates betting election betting numbers from four separate markets, bookmakers now believe Harris has a 50.1% chance of winning the election—a two-point gap over Trump who is at 48%.
In the past 24 hours, the consolidated odds for Harris have risen by 1.8% while bets favoring Trump have dropped by 2%.
Bookmakers on the betting platform PredictIt continue to give Harris significantly better odds of 54 cents per share (roughly equating to a 54% chance) compared to 48 cents for Trump.
Trump’s lead among bettors on the crypto-based trading platform Polymarket also shrunk by two points to 51% compared to Harris' 48% (a 2-point increase) as she officially accepted the Democratic nomination.
Earlier this week, Polymarket had swung more than 5 points in favor of Trump amid reports of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropping out of the race.
Harris also took back the lead in the U.K.-based platform Smarkets Thursday night, with bettors giving her a 51% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 46%.
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Unlike the other platforms, PredictIt only allows participation by U.S. residents above the age of 18. Earlier this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed banning all election-related betting in the U.S. derivatives market. The agency’s proposal came after being sued by PredictIt for trying to shut down the platform from taking bets on the presidential race—after previously allowing it.
3.6 points. That is the size of Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.
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