Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead over former President Donald Trump in the election betting markets narrowed to a single point, amid a surge in bets favoring the Republican candidate, as polling numbers continued to show a tight race is nearly all key swing states.
Bets favoring Former President Donald Trump surged in the past week—narrowing Harris' lead in the ... [+]
According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from five major markets—bookmakers give Harris a 50.1% chance of winning in November, which is exactly a point higher than Trump’s 49.1%.
This marks a major shift from last week, when odds favoring Harris were 3.5 points higher than Trump’s.
The biggest boost for Trump’s odds has come from bookmakers on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, who now predict the former president is a slight favorite with a 50.8% chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 48.2%.
Bettors on PredictIt, the market where Harris has consistently led Trump over the past month, now give the vice president 54 cents per share (roughly equating to a 54% chance) compared to Trump’s 50 cents per share.
On Kalshi—which recently won a federal court ruling to continue accepting bets on the election—bookmakers also give Harris a slight edge at 51% compared to 49% for Trump.
On the British betting site Smarkets, bookmakers predict Harris now has a 50.5% chance of winning, while Trump’s odds are at 48%.
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On Polymarket, where Trump now leads Harris, the big shift has occurred in the betting odds for the critical swing state of Pennsylvania. Bookmakers now give Trump a 55.5% chance of winning the state—up from 49% last week. Billionaire Elon Musk, who has endorsed Trump’s candidacy, shared an X post from a follower who pointed out that the boost in Trump’s odds in Pennsylvania comes “just a day after Elon Musk attended his rally” in the state.
2.6%. That is the size of Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.
Harris Holds Lead Over Trump In Election Betting Markets As Polls Show Tight Race In Swing States (Forbes)