Vice President Kamala Harris expanded her lead over former President Donald Trump as the bookmakers' favorite to win the November election on Wednesday night, as post-debate polls showed a bump in Harris' favor in key swing states.
Vice President Kamala Harris expanded her leader against former President Donald Trump in the ... [+]
Bettors on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket now predict Harris has a 52% chance of winning the election—up around 2 points in the past 24 hours—compared to Trump’s 46%.
This is a major swing in favor of Harris compared to last week, when the platform’s bettors gave both candidates a 49% chance of winning.
In the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, Polymarket odds favoring a Harris win rose to 53% on Wednesday—up more than 4 points in 24 hours—while Trump’s dropped to 48%.
On the British betting site Smarkets, bookmakers predict Harris now has a 54.64% chance of winning—up from 51.5% last week—while Trump’s odds have dropped to 45.05%.
Bettors on PredictIt, the market where Harris has consistently led Trump over the past month, now give the vice president 57 cents per share (roughly equating to a 57% chance) compared to Trump’s 46 cents per share.
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On the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from four separate markets, Harris now has a 54.2% chance of winning the presidency—nearly 10 points higher than Trump’s 44.7%.
3.3%. That is the size of Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.
As of early Thursday, bookmakers on Polymarket believe there is 32% chance of a second debate between Harris and Trump. Although bettors believe the odds of a second debate have risen slightly in the past 24 hours, the former president made it clear last week that he does not want a rematch.