Leading cannabis data provider BDSA is forecasting that the global legal cannabis market could rack up $55 billion in sales in 2027. Showing strength from the Midwest and Northeast, the U.S. market is estimated to pull in $43 billion for the country's legal market, with $35 billion of those sales coming from the adult-use channel.

Other interesting tidbits from BDSA’s forecast include:

*Among mature markets, Michigan has experienced the most substantial growth, and is expected to become a $3.8 billion market by 2027;

*Newer Northeastern markets New York and New York are each projected to fetch $2.5 billion in four years;

*Older markets California and Colorado will both undergo modest rebounds from its pandemic-era sales dips. The Golden State is estimated to take in $5.24 billion in 2027 while Colorado will pick up $1.7 billion in sales for the same time period;

*Markets beyond the U.S. and Canada are expected to reach $6.3 billion in sales by 2027. Much of this growth will come mostly from adult-use channels.

When asked why Michigan posted the most substantial growth among the U.S. legal markets, Roy Bingham, co-founder and CEO of BDSA, cited a number of factors ranging from a substantial increase in dispensaries to ramped up enforcement of illicit production and distribution.

He also pointed to another development that has contributed to Michigan emerging as an outlier among the U.S. adult-use markets—cross-border purchasing.

"Michigan does not track cross-border purchasing but it is a factor in nearly every market, especially those bordered by non-legal or limited states," explained Bingham. "Michigan borders three states without legal adult-use: Indiana and Wisconsin have no legal access and Ohio is medical-only. These states are home to some 18 million adults."

As to the steep declines with the industry's most mature markets, Colorado and California, Bingham responded, "Markets tend to peak a handful of years after launching adult-use, once production, distribution, and the percentage of adults regularly consuming begins to plateau.”

Also not helping matters in the early states were the over-licensing and production, which "led to extreme competition and a race to the bottom in terms of pricing," added Bingham. "Manufacturers and retailers have a tougher job innovating to provide discernable quality or price advantages to be able to command higher prices for their products."

And unlike Michigan, which benefited from cross-border commerce, Colorado and California, conversely, did not as more neighboring states legalized. Inflation also exacted a toll.