Topline
The average price for a gallon of regular gas has dropped below $3 in 25 states as of Sunday, though the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East could soon lead to higher prices, some industry analysts say.
Israel launched attacks on Iran last week, raising concerns among investors about disruptions to the ... More
American drivers are paying about $3.13 for a gallon of gas on average as of Sunday, with prices below $3 in 25 states, including the lowest per-gallon average of $2.66 in Mississippi, according to AAA data.
Oil prices rose last Friday after Israel attacked Iran: The West Texas Intermediate, a national benchmark for crude oil, surged by more than 7.2% to $72.98 per barrel while the global benchmark, Brent Crude, rose by 7% to $74.23 per barrel.
Patrick de Haan, GasBuddy’s head petroleum analyst, said he expects national gas prices to increase between five and 15 cents “over the next week or two” in response to rising oil prices and Israel’s conflict with Iran, after earlier estimating an increase by as much as 25 cents per gallon.
Oil prices could rise even farther if Israel and Iran’s conflict escalates, Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a petroleum engineer professor at the University of Houston, told ABC News, suggesting oil prices could substantially spike (up to $120 per barrel) if Iran’s oil infrastructure is damaged.
If oil prices reached $120 per barrel, gas prices could increase to around $5.13 per gallon, Krishnamoorti said.
States in the western U.S. have the most expensive gas on average, according to AAA. California ranks highest, with an average price of $4.65 per gallon, followed by Hawaii ($4.47), Washington ($4.37) and Oregon ($3.98).
Richard Joswick, head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in an investor note Friday that an increase in gas prices likely won’t last long. A spike in gas prices after Israel and Iran last traded strikes in October 2024 was short-lived, Joswick said, though he noted the conflict at the time did not significantly escalate “and had no impact on oil supply.”
“We’re ready to act,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, wrote Friday, adding the organization is “actively monitoring” the Iran-Israel conflict and has over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency oil in stockpiles. OPEC+ opposed Birol’s statement, writing on X it “raises false alarms and projects a sense of market fear through repeating the unnecessary need to potentially use oil emergency stocks.”
About one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data from 2023.
Gas prices have fluctuated in the U.S. as tensions have escalated in the Middle East over the last year. Israel’s war with Hamas, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s latest attacks on Iran have factored into a spike in oil prices. It’s unclear whether Israel’s conflict with Iran will deescalate soon, despite President Donald Trump signaling both countries “should make a deal, and will make a deal.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has suggested Israel’s military campaign would intensify, following reports that Israel had targeted Iran’s oil and gas industry for the first time, though it’s unclear whether the attacks have disrupted oil production or infrastructure.