Renewed fears about an economic slowdown have rattled Wall Street and beyond in recent weeks, stoked by President Donald Trump and his top economic official’s refusals to rule out a recession—and the data below will help gauge exactly how close the economy may be coming to a tipping point.

The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product, a comprehensive measure of all goods and services produced in a country. The official quarterly GDP stats haven't turned negative yet, but the Atlanta Federal Reserve's real-time model ignited concerns by calling for -2.4% annual GDP growth in 2025's first quarter, which would be the worst reading since 2020—though the estimate is likely skewed by its methodology, including how it accounts for a surge in gold imports.

JPMorgan Chase, the country’s biggest bank, calls for a weak but still positive 1% GDP growth rate during Q1, though Wall Street recession indicators tilt toward higher odds of a recession. A highly tracked model from Goldman Sachs upped its probability of a recession over the next year from 15% to 20% this month mostly on the heels of economic uncertainty from Trump’s oft-changing tariffs.

Stock prices don’t completely correlate with economic growth, but equity investors are clearly pricing in increased odds of a down stretch for the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 dove into a 10% correction last week, wiping out some $5 trillion in market value in less than a month’s time, led by stocks considered the most vulnerable to a slowdown, including artificial intelligence darling Nvidia and Elon Musk’s Tesla.

Elsewhere in financial markets, a flight to government-issued debt is evidence of a thirst for safer returns in the face of a potential recession, as yields for benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds have dropped by more than 30 basis points over the past two months (lower yields mean bonds got more valuable). But the most common bond market signal of a recession, the inversion of the yield curve, in which longer-term bonds have lower yields than shorter-dated ones, has actually normalized in recent months. The New York Fed’s bond-linked recession model calls for just 27% recession odds over the next year, down from the more than 70% odds in late 2023, a period which failed to materialize into a full-blown recession.

Perhaps the most concerning signal over the last is a breakdown in everyday Americans’ conviction in the economy, as the University of Michigan’s closely watched consumer sentiment survey tumbled this month to its lowest level since 2022. That tracks with weaker spending, as February retail sales grew by just 0.2% from January to February, according to a report released Monday by the Census Bureau, far worse than the 0.6% month-over-month increase projected by economists.

One of the most important hallmarks of the American economy, the labor market has shown some cracks in early 2025 as job creation slowed and layoffs spiked, but remains overwhelmingly strong, as February’s 4.1% unemployment rate sits well within the healthy historic norm. A key labor market recession indicator, the Sahm rule, flashes a far lower likelihood of a recession than it did when it peaked last summer, inspiring a short-lived market selloff in August.

Trading in two of the world’s most precious commodities certainly point to the prospect of a global recession. Gold prices are up more than 10% this year to a record $3,000 per troy ounce as investors flood into the historic safe haven asset, while prices for international benchmark Brent Crude sank this month to their lowest point since 2021 as traders braced for a potential global weakening in oil demand as economic activity slows.

Bessent and Trump have made clear they are lasered in on lowering interest rates, which are determined by the politically independent Fed. Typically, rates are only drastically cut during periods of economic distress, as lower rates typically stimulate economic growth as households and businesses are more likely to borrow with lower interest costs, though that uptick in loan activity can simultaneously lead to higher inflation as demand rises. But those looking for immediately lower rates are unlikely to receive good news when the Fed convenes this week to discuss interest rate policy. There is just a 1% chance the Fed will cut rates in its meeting ending Wednesday, according to derivative contract trading tracked by CME Group. The Fed is likely to hold off on further rate cuts “until tariff policy becomes clearer,” David Mericle, Goldman’s chief U.S. economist, wrote in a Sunday note to clients.

“Cracks are forming in the economy's foundation,” Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon, wrote in emailed comments Monday. “While we don’t anticipate an outright pullback in consumer spending, recession risks are rising,” Boussour continued.