The scenario is familiar to Ferrari investors. The storied Italian ultimate sports carmaker publishes a lower-than-expected profit forecast. Investors pretend to believe it and quickly bid down the shares, before reminding themselves that the company always low-balls its targets so it can claim later to have handily beaten them. The share price recovers, is soon pointing higher again and investors relax.

This time the fall was more precipitous than usual, and investors are putting on a brave face awaiting the “inevitable” rally.

At last week’s investor’s meeting - so-called Capital Markets Day – Ferrari repeated the formula but this time it coincided with a general fall in world stock market prices and the shares were still falling on Monday. The shares dived about 15% after the meeting. This week the fall has continued and was approaching 20% Monday. By midday Tuesday the shares had fallen to €324.9, almost 24% below their pre-meeting peak.

Analysts are confident the syndrome still lives and the share price will resume its upwards trajectory soon.

At the CMD, Ferrari forecast revenue this year would equal or exceed €7.1 billion ($8.2 billion) up from the previous target of €7 billion or more. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in 2025 will be €2.72 billion ($3.2 billion) or more, compared with the previous target of €2.68 billion or higher. For 2030, revenue was expected to rise to €9 billion ($10.4 billion) and EBITDA to €3.6 billion ($4.2 billion) or more, much less than investors had expected.

Anyone expecting to see how the first electric vehicle, the Elettrica, might look would have been disappointed. Ferrari showed just the base of the car which would be almost entirely battery. The Elettrica is expected to go on sale a year from now. A second EV is expected by 2030. Ferrari’s electric vehicles will now account for half the previously forecast 40% of production by 2030.

Investment bank Morgan Stanley said the plunge in Ferrari’s share price was a rare chance to buy. Was there cause to worry about business headwinds compounded by reports of vehicle residual value weakness? Or was it just being conservative?

“Earnings growth likely needs to be double their 5% target. Our call is that it will be, which is why we reiterate our overweight rating with (Thursday’s) pullback and dampened investor sentiment creating a unique opportunity to buy with conviction,” Morgan Stanley said in a report.

HSBC Global Investment Research agreed that this was all about Ferrari management style of underestimating forecasts.

“Conservatism (is) a central theme in management’s style. It might be seen as us denying the obvious, but when we review Ferrari’s new guidance, it is hard to not see it as very prudent. The growth in customers is far outpacing the intimated growth in volumes,” HSBC research said in a report.

“We see the growth in ultra-high net worth individuals, the target customers, also outgrowing volumes. That bodes well for pricing power, but management appears to be only factoring in cost inflation. Perhaps the reason management has chosen to err on the side of caution is it sets a strong narrative for scarcity – a fundamental tenet of the business,” it said.

Investment researcher Bernstein reckoned Ferrari overdid its prudence but decided that indeed it was being ultra-careful.

“We came away from the CMD somewhat stunned by what we interpret as low-balling of the guidance and believe that our positive case on Ferrari still stands,” Bernstein said in a report.

It reiterated its “Buy” recommendation “with the full realization that confidence has been shaken.”

Investment bank UBS also bought the low-ball argument.

“We believe the company’s guidance is intentionally conservative given the current volatile environment. In our view, this approach leaves room for potential upside surprises in both revenue and EBITDA,” UBS said in a report.

“Crucially, Ferrari remains committed to its scarcity-driven strategy and is consciously avoiding the price missteps seen in other luxury names as well as autos. While consensus estimates may adjust down, we do not see room for material derating. Instead, we view the pullback as a compelling buying opportunity as its unique business remains intact,” UBS said.

Ferrari didn’t show how the four-door Elettrica would look, but it had plenty of technical details. It will have a top speed of 193 miles an hour and a range of at least 330 miles. It will have four electric motors, a 122 kw/h battery, around 1,000 hp and accelerate from zero to 100 km/h (62 mph) in 2.5 seconds. It will weigh about 2,300 kg (5,070 pounds).

Engine noise has been a critical aspect of Ferraris. This electric car won’t be silent and will amplify actual vibrations from its powertrain to create a distinctly Ferrari sound, according to a report from Reuters. The price is expected to start at €500,00 ($580.000).

Aston Martin still hasn’t decided when to introduce an electric car. Lamborghini has delayed its first EV from 2028 to 2029. Porsche is currently in financial difficulties after overestimating the demand for EVs. Stellantis’s Maserati has cancelled its EV.