The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied, with new polls out this week that show Harris with an edge in the Great Lakes region and Nevada, while Trump leads in Georgia and Arizona—but the pivotal state of Pennsylvania is nearly tied.
Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead in some swing states.
Pennsylvania: Harris holds a narrow 49%-48% lead over Trump in a new Cooperative Election Study survey backed by universities (3,685 respondents), the latest poll to show a near-tie, as Trump leads 49%-48% in an Emerson poll (margin of error 3.4) while Bloomberg found Harris up 50%-48.2% (margin of error 3). Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Michigan: Harris leads 51%-46% in the CES poll (2,336 respondents), while Trump leads 49%-48% in an Emerson survey released Tuesday (margin of error 3 points). Harris is up by 0.7 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Wisconsin: Harris is up 50%-47% over Trump in the CES poll (1,542 respondents), Trump is up 49% to 48% in the Emerson survey (margin of error 3.4), 48.3%-48% in Bloomberg’s poll (margin of error 4) and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll (margin of error 2.9), while Harris holds a 50%-47% edge in a Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.6). Harris is up 0.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.
Nevada: Harris leads Trump 51%-47% in the CES survey (933 respondents), while Trump is ahead 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points) and Harris is up 48.8%-48.3% in a Bloomberg poll out Oct. 23 (margin of error 5). Harris leads by 0.1 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Arizona: Trump is up 51%-47% in the CES survey (2,066 respondents), and he leads 50%-49% in a Marist poll released Oct. 24 (margin of error 3.7) and 49%-46% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll out this week (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Georgia: Trump holds a 51%-46% lead over Harris in the CES survey (2,663 respondents), reflecting his edge in most polls, though they are tied at 49% in a Marist poll (margin of error 3.9), and Trump leads by a narrower 49.9%-48.4% in a Bloomberg poll (margin of error 3), while a Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.5) found Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
North Carolina: Trump leads Harris 50%-48% in the CES survey (2,308 respondents), and Trump is also up 50%-48% in recent Marist and Emerson College polls. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with a 1.1-point advantage.
1.3 points. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.
Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Onto Lead In 4 New Polls (Forbes)
Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In One Of Her Most Important State (Forbes)
Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has Less Than 1-Point Lead In Polling Averages (Forbes)
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Near Tie In The New 7th Swing State (Forbes)
Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead In Crucial Swing State (Forbes)
Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has A Narrow Lead—But Struggles With Latino Voters (Forbes)
Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)
Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Holds Advantage In Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes)