The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied, with new polls from Quinnipiac University on Wednesday showing Harris with a slight edge in Michigan but a tied race in Wisconsin.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event at Divine Faith Ministries International on ... [+]
Michigan: Harris leads 49%-46% in Quinnipiac’s polling after trailing Trump 50%-47% earlier this month, and she’s ahead 49%-47%, in a Washington Post-Schar School poll Monday. Harris is up by just 0.6 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Wisconsin: Harris and Trump are tied at 48%, according to Quinnipiac, versus Trump’s 48%-46% lead in early October, and Harris holds a 50%-47% edge in the Washington Post-Schar poll. Harris is up 0.5 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.
Georgia: Trump leads by four points, 47% to 43%, in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters out Tuesday, while a Washington Post-Schar poll released Monday found Harris ahead by four points, 51% to 47%, following a Quinnipiac poll released last week that showed Trump leading 52% to 45%. Trump leads by 1.5 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Nevada: Trump is ahead by one point, 47% to 46%, in an AARP poll released Tuesday, and they’re tied at 48% in the Washington Post-Schar poll, while a Wall Street Journal poll released Oct. 11 found Trump up by 5 points. Harris leads by 0.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Arizona: Trump is ahead by three points, 49% to 46%, in the Washington Post-Schar School poll, consistent with a CBS/YouGov survey last week that showed Trump leading Harris 51% to 48%, though the Journal poll found Harris up by two points, 47% to 45%. Trump is up 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
North Carolina: Trump is up three points, 50% to 47%, in the Washington Post-Schar poll, while Harris had a two-point lead, 49% to 47%, in the Quinnipiac poll. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with a 0.8-point advantage.
Pennsylvania: Harris leads by two points, 49% to 47%, in the Washington Post-Schar poll, she held a three-point advantage, 50% to 47% (closer to four points when not rounded up), in a pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls released Oct. 12, and the Wall Street Journal poll found Trump with a one-point lead. Trump leads Harris by 0.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
0.6. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 1.8 points.
Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Onto Lead In 4 New Polls (Forbes)
Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In One Of Her Most Important State (Forbes)
Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has Less Than 1-Point Lead In Polling Averages (Forbes)
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Near Tie In The New 7th Swing State (Forbes)
Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead In Crucial Swing State (Forbes)
Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has A Narrow Lead—But Struggles With Latino Voters (Forbes)
Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)
Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Holds Advantage In Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes)