Vice President Kamala Harris leads or is tied with Trump in all but one of the six states likely to decide the election, according to a new CNN/SSRS poll, though significant shares of likely voters in each state are undecided, indicating the race could shift by election day.
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at a Labor Day event at ... [+]
Arizona: Trump leads Harris by five points, 49% to 44%, his only lead among likely voters in the six states surveyed by CNN/SSRS between Aug. 23 and 29, though 14% of Arizona voters said they might change their minds before November—Trump trailed Harris by two points, 49% to 47%, here in a July 24-28 Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey of registered voters taken just after President Joe Biden’s exit from the race.
Pennsylvania: Harris and Trump are tied here, each with 47%, with 15% of voters open to changing their minds—a swing in Harris’ favor from July, when Trump was leading by four points in the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.
Georgia: Harris is up by one point here, 48% to 47%, well within the 4.7-point margin of error, while 11% of likely voters surveyed suggested they could change their minds (she and Trump were tied here in July with 47% support each in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll).
Nevada: Another state with no clear leader, Harris leads by one point, 48% to 47%, and 13% of respondents told CNN/SSRS they’re not firmly committed to the candidates they prefer now, a slight decline from Harris’ two-point lead here in the July survey.
Michigan: Harris is up five points here, 48% to 43%, with 15% of respondents saying they might change their minds, a narrower lead than the 11-point advantage she held here in the July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.
Wisconsin: Harris has her most sizable lead here, 50% to 44% (though 14% of voters say they could change their minds), expanding the two-point advantage she held here in July’s Bloomberg poll.
- That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in North Carolina, 49% to 47%, among registered voters, according to Bloomberg/Morning Consult, reversing the 48% to 46% lead Trump held there in July. North Carolina is widely considered a battleground state this year following changes in the population over the past decade that have shifted it more toward the left.
Harris is receiving more support from younger, non-white and female voters—demographics who showed indecision over their support for Biden before he dropped out—according to a recent New York Times survey, which noted Harris had support from 84% of Black voters in the polls, a higher share of support than Biden had before withdrawing from the race in July.
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
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