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Forbes
Forbes
6 Sep 2023


Seattle Seahawks v Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings will be more dependent on Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson than ever before. (John ... [+] Autey / MediaNews Group / St. Paul Pioneer Press via Getty Images)

MediaNews Group via Getty Images

There are plenty of reasons to question the Minnesota Vikings as they prepare to kick off the 2023 regular season Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The most obvious issues concern the defense, the running back position and their proclivity for winning close games as a result of fourth-quarter execution.

The last factor has been cited as something to do with luck. The Vikings won 13 regular-season games a year ago and 11 of those wins were by 8 points or less. So, since they got the breaks last year, many of those one-score wins will turn into losses in 2023.

That’s utterly ridiculous. A look back at games against opponents like the Commanders, Bills, Patriots and Jets indicated that luck had nothing to do with those late wins. They outplayed, outworked and outcoached their opponents when the game was on the line.

The Bills game is often cited as the one where luck played the biggest role. Yes, it was lucky that Justin Jefferson was selected by the Vikings and not any of the teams that picked before the Vikings selected 22nd in the 2020 NFL Draft.

The Vikings were more prepared and executed better than their opponents, and that’s why they won so many close games. It was not luck.

The defense is quite another story as the season looms. The Vikings did not just have a poor season last year, ranking 31st in yardage allowed. They have been awful on defense each of the past 3 years. Opponents have been ripping through the run defense and laughing at the way Minnesota defends the pass.

New England Patriots v Miami Dolphins

The Vikings are depending on Brian Flores to improve their defense, even though there has been very ... [+] little improvement to the defensive personnel. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

Getty Images

The Vikings have tried to address this situation by putting it on a new defensive coordinator in Brian Flores to turn this situation around. Head coach Kevin O’Connell comes into the season believing that the Vikings biggest defensive issues last year were scheme-related, and that a more aggressive and creative approach will turn the situation around.

O’Connell has to believe that because the Vikings have not added any major difference makers to their ordinary defensive personnel. They have brought in outside linebacker Marcus Davenport and cornerback Byron Murphy, both of whom are good players. Neither one is a superstar.

If Flores truly is effective at his job, it will likely show in Week 2 when the Vikings play the Eagles. They will be on a national stage – Thursday night Amazon Prime – against the best team in the NFC. The Eagles eviscerated the Vikings in Week 2 a year ago, and they may be able to do the same thing again this year.

But if the Flores influence is effective and the defense punishes Jalen Hurts and limits the Philadelphia running game, there will be a new level of confidence in the Minnesota locker room that could last the season.

The running game is another major issues. O’Connell set the stage for the departure of Dalvin Cook early in the offseason by citing the number of 0-yardage and negative carries that Cook had last year. O’Connell had the facts on his side, but Cook has also been one of the most explosive running backs throughout his career.

He has been fully capable of a 75-yard touchdown run or 60 yard TD reception that could turn any game in the Vikings favor.

The Vikings have a hard-working honest running back in Alexander Mattison. He probably won’t get trapped in the backfield as often as Cook, but the explosive running or receiving play is likely out of the picture with Mattison – or backups Ty Chandler and Myles Gaskin.

The vulnerability at the running back position is likely to remove balance from the Minnesota offense. If it was on Jefferson and Kirk Cousins in the past, it will be even more so this year.

The Vikings will also need tight end T.J. Hockenson, rookie Jordan Addison and hard working K.J. Osborn to make regular contributions. Cousins needs to stay healthy and overcome career-long tendencies towards mediocrity against high-level opponents.

If the answers to these issues are positive, first place in the NFC North looms once again. The Lions? There’s a lot of hype but not a lot of substance. They were 32nd on the defensive side of the ball last year.

The Packers have too many issues as the Jordan Love era starts and the Bears are merely hoping for incremental improvement off a 3-14 season.

The NFC North will belong to the Vikings once again.