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Forbes
Forbes
8 Aug 2023


TOPSHOT-UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT

TOPSHOT - A Ukrainian serviceman looks on as he stands in front of a burning warehouse after a ... [+] shelling in Kyiv on March 17, 2022. - Ukraine's leader on Thursday accused Moscow of building a new Cold War wall across Europe " between freedom and bondage ", as his government said Russian shelling had killed 21 more civilians. Three weeks into their devastating invasion, Russian forces also stood accused of bombing a theatre sheltering many civilians and marked with the word "children". (Photo by Aris Messinis / AFP) (Photo by ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

Ukraine’s President Zelensky may have a price on his back, but that has not deterred him or his nation — a country determined to seek freedom and Westernize. Indeed, Zelensky had earlier messaged his chief adversary, telling President Putin he won’t survive another decade.

But if this war is to end sooner rather than later, the key is to cut off Russia’s funding and confiscate the state’s stolen wealth. Indeed, Russia is earning $500 million to $1 billion a day selling its oil and gas on world markets, used to bankroll its war against Ukraine. If the world stopped buying this oil, the war would end, preventing untold death and carnage.

Already, BP, Shell, ExxonMobil XOM , and Equinor, have pulled back. Beyond that, the international community needs to confiscate the now-frozen Russian assets, using the money to help repair the desecration in Ukraine.

“Russia has done a $1 trillion damage to Ukraine,” Bill Browder told me, founder of Hermitage Capital Management — once Russia's most extensive portfolio investor. “Since the beginning of the war, the West has frozen $350 billion of central bank reserves. The obvious thing to do is freeze that money and seize it. It’s the correct thing to do morally, financially, and politically.”

I was in Ukraine in September 2019 when the news broke that President Donald Trump and his lawyer Rudy Giuliani had asked Ukraine to announce a criminal investigation against then-former Vice President Joe Biden. This tactic got Trump impeached the first time, while Zelensky didn’t flinch.

But just as Trump and Giuliani thought they could outmuscle Zelensky, Putin fell into the same trap. Recall that Zelensky — a former comedian — could have cut and run at the war’s outset but instead stood tall, becoming an international statesman — while Putin hunkered down in his bunker. Ukraine could now win outright with the world’s financial and military support.

And today, Putin is weakened by many factors: an international arrest warrant, an attempted “coup,” and drones hitting Moscow’s business districts, causing him to lash out at Ukraine’s civilian population. Putin is a wanted man inside and outside Russia — no longer feared or seen as the country’s strongman. He planned to travel to South Africa for the so-called BRICS conference later this month but will instead dispatch a deputy for fear of getting arrested. Now he is isolated and sending overtures to North Korea.

“Putin is incredibly fearful, and he does not want to take risks," says Browder, who exposed corruption in the current government. ”He has been a brazen and aggressive man and has gotten away with murder. But all of a sudden, he can’t travel, and it is terrible for his prestige. He looks weak inside of his country too.”

RUSSIA-UKRAINE-CONFLICT-MOSCOW-DRONES

A view of a damaged office block of the Moscow International Business Center (Moskva City) following ... [+] a reported drone attack in Moscow on August 1, 2023. A Ukrainian drone downed by Russia on August 1 struck a Moscow office tower that was also hit over the weekend, as multiple other drones were downed, Russian officials said. "Several drones were shot down by air defence systems while trying to fly to Moscow. One (drone) flew into the same tower in (Moscow) City as last time. The facade on the 21st floor was damaged," Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Telegram. "There is no information on casualties," he said, adding that emergency services were on the scene. On July 30, Russia said it had downed Ukrainian drones targeting the capital in an attack that damaged two office towers in Moscow-City, a commercial development. (Photo by Alexander NEMENOV / AFP) (Photo by ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

Putin ascended to Russia’s presidency in May 2000, replacing Boris Yeltsin, who tried to speed up the country’s transition to democracy. But asking a government traditionally run by authoritarians to turn power over to the people is monumental. Russians obey feared leaders — a version of Machiavelli and “might makes right.”

Putin is perceived to love Mother Russia. But he governs through intimidation. And as Browder notes, everyone in Russia who enters public life — from the lowest traffic cop to the president — takes a cut off the top. It’s how Putin got to be the richest guy in the world.

The country’s oligarchs hold the money but are essentially the president’s “financial concierges.” To stay alive and prosperous, they must comply.

But such governance has left Russia in a sad state. Driving 10 miles outside of Moscow is illustrative — dirt roads, depleted hospitals, and schools with few supplies. Propaganda goes only so far. The people suffer while the ultra-wealthy and the politically connected live in luxury — a sad commentary in a country filled with cultured and educated citizens.

Enter the war against Ukraine — the kind of foreign enemy that Putin needs to avoid trouble at home. But he miscalculated, thinking he could easily conquer Ukraine. And now his troops are dying by the thousands.

“What I can imagine is that the people loyal to Putin pledge their support to someone else,” Browder told me. “If Ukraine wins, Putin loses his life, so he will throw a million more soldiers into the meat grinder. A rational person would have stopped this a long time ago. But he does not care about the national interest — only his survival. So he will sacrifice everything.”

To maintain his grip on power, Putin needs an offramp — a way to save face. That could involve “land for peace,” which Ukraine adamantly opposes. However, Russia’s calculus assumes Europe and the United States don’t have the staying power, limiting Ukraine’s ability to fight on. Its money is also on a Trump 2024 victory, which is conjecture.

The intelligent bet globally is to cut off Russia’s lifeline — the oil and gas revenues. It will save Russia long-term by ending the war and allowing it to rejoin the world community. A prolonged war further alienates Russia and forces it to hook up with North Korea, underscoring Zelensky's image as heroic and clairvoyant — that Putin is just biding his time.

BRITAIN-ECONOMY-POLITICS

American-born British financier and political activist Bill Browder poses for pictures in front of ... [+] 10 Downing street in London, on March 2, 2022. (Photo by Tolga Akmen / AFP) (Photo by TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images