It’s been a tough year for starting pitchers - the ball appears to be at least somewhat juiced, and the rules to eliminate shifts, stimulate the running game and ramp up pace of play have added significant new challenges. Some of the game’s most highly paid hurlers are battling injuries, to make matters worse. Very, very quietly, an unassuming Cubs’ lefthander has posted an imposing 6-0, 1.82, record in the early going. Who is this Justin Steele character, and how is he getting this done?

Steele was a 2014 5th round draftee from a Mississippi high school, and never was considered a very good prospect. Let’s see......he had an 18-23 record in the minors, allowing about a hit per inning, and striking out less than a batter per inning. Steele has never completed a game as a professional. He didn’t clear High-A until 2018, and get past Double-A until 2021. Each season, I compile a list of top pitching prospects based on performance and age relative to level and league - Steele never made my list. While the one-year 2020 minor league baseball hiatus served as a career-killer for many farmhands, Steele emerged as a new man afterward.

He got to the major leagues midway through the 2021 season and didn’t embarrass himself, posting a 4.26 ERA as a swingman. Sometime last season, Steele morphed from a passable big league pitcher into one of the most reliable starters around. He posted a 3.18 ERA in 24 starts in 2022, and is 6-0, 1.82, though his Wednesday outing.

Now ERA can be pretty misleading, and it’s been just about a year since he started having some measure of MLB success, so it might seem a bit early to be making any sweeping conclusions about the 27-year-old southpaw. I’m buying Steele shares, however. You see, it’s now been 18 starts since he had a bad one. On June 23, 2022, he allowed five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Pirates. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since. (Sure, he gave up four unearned runs last July 28 against the Giants, but struck out six in 3 2/3 innings, so I’ll cut him a break.)

He’s also emerging as an elite contact manager. He was pretty good in that regard last year, and has taken it to another level thus far in 2023.

Steele is a strong grounder generator, posting nearly identical grounder rates of 51.2% and 51.1% in 2022 and 2023. On top of that, he suppresses fly ball and liner authority when hitters are able to elevate the baseball. His average fly ball exit speeds of 87.8 mph in 2022 and 84.2 mph in 2023 are well below league average - this season’s mark is over two full standard deviations better. His average liner exit speeds allowed of 89.8 and 90.8 mph in 2022 and 2023, respectively, are both over a full standard deviation better than league average.

Overall, his average exit speed allowed of 84.0 mph in 2023 is over two full standard deviations better than average, and a significant improvement over an already strong mark of 86.9 mph in 2022. Overall, his Adjusted Contact Score - a measure of the amount of production a pitcher “should be” allowing, with 100 equal to league average and the lower the number the better - checked in at 89 in 2022 and 79 thus far in 2023.

His 2022 level was solidly above average - his 2023 mark will put him in the mix for NL Contact Manager of the Year honors if he can keep up this pace.

And to be great, Steele will need to do so, as his K/BB profile is merely in the league average range, and not a material asset. Last year, his 9.8% BB rate was an issue, and while that’s improved to 7.3% in 2023, his K rate (down to 20.3% from 24.6% in 2022) is moving in the opposite direction.

The main reason that I’m a believer in Steele is his ability to get the job done with his fastball. At an average of 92.4 mph, his velocity is decent but not exceptional for a lefty, but that hasn’t stopped him from absolutely stifling contact with the pitch. In 2022, the 66 pitchers with 135 or more innings with a qualifying four-seamer averaged a 115.4 pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Score. The four-seamer allows the most damage of any pitch, by a large margin. Steele’s four-seamer posted a 91 mark. This season, it’s even better at 81, which would have tied Jose Quintana for the top spot in 2022.

He posted a 8.3% whiff rate with his four-seamer in 2022 (qualifiers averaged 9.1%), and has bumped that up to 10.3% thus far in 2023. Using my pitch grade metric that is based on bat-missing and contact management relative to the league, Steele’s four-seamer earned a “B+” in 2022, and an “A” so far in 2023. And that’s a really big deal when you throw the pitch as often as Steele does (56.4% usage rate in 2022, 60.5% in 2023).

Steele’s slider is a very strong complement to his fastball. It falls a bit short of average on the bat-missing front (14.2% in 2022, 13.0% in 2023, 15.5% qualifiers’ league average in 2022) and is above average with regard to contact management (90 and 72 Adjusted Contact Scores in 2022 and 2023, 96.9 qualifiers’ league average in 2022). The pitch earned a “B” grade in 2022 and a “B+” thus far in 2023.

All in all, I see Steele as a slightly better, lefthanded version of the recently retired and onetime AL Contact Manager of the Year Marco Estrada. Pitchers lacking materially above league average K/BB profiles can only be so good for so long, but they can be extremely valuable. The current version of Justin Steele appears poised to record his career year, and should be a major contributor to the Cubs’ rotation in the intermediate term.