At a meeting in Belgium this morning, the Netherlands announced it will start training Ukrainian F-16 pilots “as soon as possible” as part of a three-step plan backed by the U.S. The plan might yield trained Ukrainian F-16 pilots before their air force has F-16s.

The news was released during a Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at which Denmark, the Netherlands, the UK and the Pentagon announced that they are partnering together to deliver a high priority package of air defense equipment to Ukraine.

A letter from Dutch Minister of Defense, Kajsa Ollongren, to the Netherlands’ House of Representatives offered detail on the F-16 training plan, but no specific start date for training. However, the letter affirms that Netherlands and several European countries are working to start training Ukrainian pilots as soon as possible.

That could mean that training starts late this month or early next. In a May 25th announcement that Denmark and the Netherlands would lead the training coalition, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Gen. Mark Milley observed that even with training poised to start within weeks, building up Ukraine’s air force to a point where it can contend with Russia’s air power will take extended time and money.

On Tuesday, Reuters repeated a Danish news agency report that the Netherlands would propose an August start date for F-16 training but as noted, Minister Ollongren’s letter included no specific information. Given the earlier May announcement in coordination with the U.S. Department of Defense, a sooner rather than later training commencement seems likely.

It’s worth remembering that a number of Ukrainian pilots have already been training in F-16s in the U.S. for months. In Mid-May, an unnamed Biden administration official told Breaking Defense that Ukrainian pilots would begin training in Europe in the coming weeks and that each pilot would need “several months of training — even if that’s much faster than anticipated — and the administration officials said coalition partners will use this buffer to decide who is providing the jets, how many and when.”

The above estimates raise the prospect that Ukraine could have a significant cadre of trained F-16 pilots well before it actually receives F-16s.

“In theory, [available] F-16s are ready to go,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analyst, Mark F. Cancian, says. “But you get into technology transfer questions and a number are coming out of storage so there could be a more of a process to get them to Ukraine than you might think.”

Cancian also raises the obvious point that Ukrainian ground support personnel, maintainers and armorers will need to be trained before the Ukrainian Air Force can actually operate F-16s in-country. On the other hand, he points to the training program outlined by the Netherlands’ Defense Minister.

The plan’s three tracks include instruction in “Language skills and initial or basic flight training” as well as “the establishment of an F-16 training centre in one of NATO's eastern member states.”

“I’d call the training [program] ‘measured”, Cancian says. “It’s certainly not a crash-course. They’re talking about language training, simulators and transitioning at some unstated time to an F-16 training center in Europe. My guess is it would be next spring before you have [Ukrainian] pilots ready.”

Perhaps, but an article in the UK’s Guardian newspaper out today cites NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, as saying that the training of Ukrainian personnel was under way.

“The fact that training has started provides us with the option to also decide to deliver the planes and then the pilots will be ready to fly them,” Stoltenberg stated.

In late May, Norwegian defense minister, Bjoern Arild Gram, said his country would support Ukrainian F-16 training. In 2019, Lockheed Martin and Norway agreed to jointly form the first F-16 “Falcon Depot” center in the country to support the global F-16 fleet. F-16s bound for Romania from the depot center in Kjeller, Norway, could be diverted to USAF instructors there and potentially used to train Ukrainian pilots.

Whether such training may already have commenced is anyone’s guess but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Nor is private adversary company training. As I noted in a previous article, Norway may already have indirectly supported the possibility with its sale of F-16s to Florida-based Red Air contractor, Draken International.

Another U.S.-based private adversary aircraft company currently operates F-16s. Top Aces, based in Mesa, Ariona, is situated a little over 115 miles from the 162nd Fighter Wing where Ukrainian pilots have already been under “evaluation” for potential F-16 training by the Arizona Air National Guard.

The eastern NATO member state where Ukrainian pilot training may take place is most likely Poland Cancian notes. It operates 48 F-16s including two-seater training aircraft and its proximity, large military and large U.S. military presence are persuasive factors in potentially locating Ukrainian training there. As described, the Dutch-led pilot training program could take some time, he says.

The scenario also hinges on the U.S. and NATO partners actually pulling the trigger on sending aircraft to Ukraine. As widely noted, the Pentagon and President Biden have been reluctant to countenance any such transfer.

Despite asserting that Ukrainian pilots and F-16s could be paired in Ukraine on a more-lengthy schedule, Cancian acknowledges, “I think the United States just doesn’t want to send F-16s over. I think they think it’ll take too long, it’s too expensive and it’s too much effort.”

Combining that sentiment with the track record of Ukrainian forces - gaining operational capability with previously provided U.S. weapons systems from the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) to sophisticated radars, drones and armored vehicles in the midst of a war zone - suggests that future Ukrainian F-16 pilots may indeed be ready to fight before they have the airplanes to fight with.