THE AMERICA ONE NEWS
Jun 2, 2025  |  
0
 | Remer,MN
Sponsor:  QWIKET 
Sponsor:  QWIKET 
Sponsor:  QWIKET: Elevate your fantasy game! Interactive Sports Knowledge.
Sponsor:  QWIKET: Elevate your fantasy game! Interactive Sports Knowledge and Reasoning Support for Fantasy Sports and Betting Enthusiasts.
back  
topic
Forbes
Forbes
27 Jun 2023


Trading Floor At The LME

traders on the 'open outcry' trading 'Ring' of the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Whittington Avenue ... [+] in the City of London, England, 11th November 1963. The LME is a commodities exchange dealing in metals, futures and options, as well as facilitating the trading of precious metals. (Photo by Evening Standard/Hulton Archive/Getty Images)

Getty Images

Commodities prices continue tumbling. It’s probably a key sign that the inflationary surge is coming to an end. That’s likely good for everyone.

The data is especially heartening. Last month the Produce Price Index for All Commodities dropped by 7.1% versus a year ago, according to government data collated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That compares with a drop of 3.1% the month before.

This metric tracks prices of raw commodities such as oil, natural gas, metals such as copper and steel, lumber, farm products and food stuffs. Energy ranks high in the weighting.

Anyone who’s visited a gas pump lately would know that things are cooling off in the energy sector. Brent crude oil, which is used to make gasoline and diesel fuel, recently fetched $72.55 a barrel, down from approximately $110 a year ago. Likewise the wholesale price of gasoline has dropped from $3.69 a gallon a year ago to $2.52 recently, according to data collated by TradingEconomics.

Given that energy is something of a driver of overall inflation then its likely that this pullback will help retail price increases moderate in the next few weeks. Diesel fuel is what most long haul delivery trucks use and when that cost falls, or at least stops rising there’s a decent chance that inflation cools a bit.

Ukrainian Farmers Harvest New Wheat Crops Whilst War Blocks Exports

MYRONIVKA, UKRAINE - JULY 29: A stork flies above a wheat field as a combine harvester of TVK Seed ... [+] agricultural company harvests wheat on July 29, 2022 not far from Myronivka, Ukraine. Commodity exports from Ukraine, one of the world's largest producers of wheat, corn and vegetable-oil, have been stalled since the Russian invasion on February 24 affected important port infrastructures. (Photo by Alexey Furman/Getty Images)

Getty Images

There’s also good news from the farm sector which shows some softness in key prices. Wheat prices have dropped to $6.84 a bushel recently down from $9.36 a year ago.

Likewise wholesale coffee was fetching $1.69 a pound recently down considerably from $2.22 a year ago.

London-based economics consulting firm Capital Economics recently pointed out that Europe eurozone could be a major beneficiary of falling prices for farm products. “We expect euro-zone food inflation to fall sharply over the coming year due to the large declines in agricultural and energy commodity prices,” the report says. The eurozone is the European Union’s single currency area.

However, it warns that because labor costs have risen sizably over the last year and a half then falling prices likely won’t last.

Still, falling inflation is exactly what Europe and America both need. Cooler inflation will hopefully get central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to pause their interest rate increases.

That would seem to make a lot of sense for Europe given that it’s largest economy Germany is shrinking. If the ECB doesn’t at least pause its rate hikes then its hard to see how Germany makes a vibrant recovery. Not only is that country Europe’a largest economy, but it is also considered the engine of growth for the bloc.

Its also true that Europe was hit hard by the disruption of commodities availability following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February last year. Europe had relied heavily on energy supplies from Russia, and agricultural products from both Russia and Ukraine. Obviously. the war sent prices for those items higher.

The irony here is that it was partly the surge in food and energy prices that may have tipped Germany into a recession. Now commodity inflation is in reverse it might seem sensible for the ECB to take a cautious approach and not raise rates too much more.