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Forbes
Forbes
17 May 2023


Transportation Secretary Buttigieg Highlights New Electric Vehicle Charging Station On Earth Day

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 22: Electric vehicles are displayed before a news conference with White House ... [+] Climate Adviser Gina McCarthy and U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg about the American Jobs Plan and to highlight electric vehicles at Union Station near Capitol Hill on April 22, 2021 in Washington, DC. The Biden administration has proposed over $170 billion in spending to boost the production of zero-emission buses and cars and increase the number of EV charging stations. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

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The Edison Electric Institute projects 26.4 million electric vehicles in 2030, giving utilities new revenues but putting pressure on them to make substantial outlays. They have already invested over $3 billion into the charging infrastructure, with nearly $1 billion in underserved communities.

The goal is to build the charging infrastructure to at least 10 million new ports to meet the demand. And the wires must handle the increased traffic, requiring utilities to invest heavily in the transmission and distribution infrastructure.

“Getting the market ready is important for adoption,” says Lon Huber, senior vice president Duke Energy DUK during a symposium held by the United States Energy Association where this reporter was a panelist. “That is what we do. We are planners. We’re infrastructure experts: we operate the grid, which literally wraps around the world many times. Think about the expertise that's required to maintain something like that. We need policies that utilize the expertise utilities have honed over 100 years, bringing it to the infrastructure market to ensure it’s equitable and reliable so they don’t revert to the internal combustion engine.”

The major car companies are expanding production of their electric vehicles, including BMW, Ford, General Motors GM , Nissan, Toyota, and Kia.

To get there, the U.S. Department of Energy says that the transmission and distribution network must expand by 60% by 2050 — and to triple by 2030. The Edison Electric Institute says it is ahead of the game, working with policymakers and various stakeholders to make this happen.

The REPEAT Project says that if the transmission grid fails to develop more than 1% yearly, it will increase U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 800 million tons annually by 2030. Stated differently, if the grid doesn't grow, the goal of the Inflation Reduction Act will go unrealized, losing more than 80% of the emissions gains. That hurts wind, solar, and electric vehicles. To hit net zero, the grid must grow 2% to 3% yearly.

California Adopts Sweeping Plan To Combat Greenhouse Gas Emissions

SUN VALLEY, CA - DECEMBER 11: The Department of Water and Power (DWP) San Fernando Valley ... [+] Generating Station is seen December 11, 2008 in Sun Valley, California. Under a new climate plan before state regulators, California would take major steps toward cutting greenhouse gas emissions. If adopted by the California Air Resources Board, it would be the most ambitious global warming prevention plan in the nation, outlining for the first time how businesses and the public would meet the 2006 law that made the state a leader on global climate change. The action would lead to the creation of a carbon-credit market to make it cheaper for the biggest polluters to cut emissions, and change the ways utilities generate power, businesses use electricity, and personal transportation (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)

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Wood MacKenzie says battery technology is advancing and the devices will hit an inflection point in 2027 — when price and quality are improving expeditiously.

“ConEdison has fully leaned into supporting the ambitious, clean energy goals of New York State and the city, and we've set ambitious targets of our own through our clean energy commitment,” says Britt Reichborn-Kjennerud, director of e-mobility for the utility. “With nearly a third of the carbon emissions in New York State due to transportation, this sector cannot be ignored. We do have a very robust grid planning process. But we're also thinking about more proactive ways to plan for these loads to support this transition.”

She notes that managing the charging times through demand response programs or time-of-use rates will push EV owners to juice up during off-peak times. That will reduce infrastructure needs, helping manage everyone’s costs.

“One of the nice things about electric vehicles is that folks charge the batteries to 80%, or even higher, overnight,” adds Phil Dion, a senior vice president for the Edison Electric Institute. They avoid the busiest times, making the entire electrical system more efficient and reliable.

But what about the efficiency of the lithium-ion battery compared to the internal combustion engine? According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, electric vehicles are much cleaner than gasoline-powered cars. It found that EVs create the same level of heat-trapping emissions as a car that gets 88 miles per gallon — which doesn’t exist; the most efficient vehicles get 58 miles per gallon, while the average one gets 31 miles per gallon.

And EVs will only get cleaner relative to the internal combustion engine. That’s because the emissions rate between 2016 and 2018 fell. After all, power plants are getting cleaner, and more coal plants are retiring. And the more EVs on the road, the healthier the air. And as batteries get better and cheaper, the clean factor keeps compounding.

High Oil Prices Continue To Drive Gas Prices Steadily Upwards

CULVER CITY, CA - APRIL 25: Oil rigs extract petroleum as the price of crude oil rises to nearly ... [+] $120 per barrel, prompting oil companies to reopen numerous wells across the nation that were considered tapped out and unprofitable decades ago when oil sold for one-fifth the price or less, on April 25, 2008 in the Los Angeles area community of Culver City, California. Many of the old unprofitable wells, known as "stripper wells", are located in urban areas where home owners are often outraged by the noise, smell, and possible environmental hazards associated with living so close to renewed oil drilling. Since homeowners usually do not own the mineral rights under their land, oil firms can drill at an angle to go under homes regardless of the desires of residents. Using expensive new technology and drilling techniques, California producers have reversed a long decline of about 5 percent annually with an increased crude flow of about 2 1/2 million barrels in 2007 for the first time in years. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)

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Utilities have long been slow to the starting line. Now, though, they have a chance to accelerate the race to net zero — and to burnish their brands.

“Only 10% of people responded that they were likely to seek out information from their utilities about electric vehicles,” says Erin Autin, senior director of research and content for Zpryme. “So I think there’s a good opportunity for utilities to do a better job of engaging with their customers and partnering with technology companies.”

How are oil companies reacting to this phenomenon — a threat to their legacy business plans? Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Wood Mackenzie, and BP have predicted that oil’s relevance in the transport sector will wane as EV interest picks up. In the most extreme case, BP says global oil demand will decline by 80% by 2050. Its “business-as-usual” case falls by 10% during this time. Otherwise, expect a 50% drop.

Jigar Shah, director of the loans program office at the U.S. Department of Energy, told an earlier panel hosted by the United States Energy Association, that electric vehicles relieve producers from finding oil in depleted or risky places. As a result, oil companies are not a serious obstacle to change. Moreover, they are diversifying their portfolios and making green investments.

Some of them are actively engaged in the electrification market, buying green enterprises or taking stakes in the wind, solar, and battery makers, says Kyle Pynn, director of transportation electrification for Burns & McDonnell. Others focus on blue hydrogen or using natural gas as a feedstock to create hydrogen used in the clean economy. Moreover, their customers demand greener fuels while their shareholders want them to disclose their environmental risks.

“We’re finding that the major oil companies have taken a look over the fence, and they realize there is an existential crisis coming: EV adoption will make the internal combustion engine a thing of the past,” says Pynn.

Policymakers are generally supportive: the European Union is phasing out the internal combustion engine by 2040, while the Biden Administration wants half of all U.S.-sold vehicles to run on electricity by 2030. If electricity can replace gasoline, that would help countries meet their climate goals.

And thus, the utility sector supports the electrification of the economy. It requires companies to invest in their networks and charging infrastructure, which will pay big dividends for them and their customers, communities, and shareholders.