Being a fan of a small-market MLB club can be tricky business. The gold standard among that group would seem to be the Tampa Bay Rays, who have never had a team payroll higher than last year’s mark of just over $135M. They make the playoffs frequently, can seemingly turn anyone into a productive pitcher, and have done everything but win the game’s ultimate prize, a World Series championship.

Very quietly, the work done by the Milwaukee Brewers in recent seasons has been very comparable. Until just the last couple of seasons they had routinely spent much more on players than the Rays, though recent upticks have brought their junior circuit counterparts more closely in line. In 2023, the Brewers’ payroll was just over $150M, just a tad under its 2022 peak. They have done it a little differently than Tampa, consistently wringing out 2.5 million in attendance annually in the game’s smallest market. On the other hand, they’re one of several clubs with a cable deal with a distressed provider, and have a pretty hard cap on non-attendance revenue.

Like the Rays, they’ve been playoff regulars, but haven’t reached the World Series in over 40 years, never winning one. They may in fact be at or near the end of their period of greatest opportunity. Their three-headed starting pitcher monster of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta is no more, as Woodruff recently underwent shoulder surgery and was subsequently non-tendered. While Peralta remains under control on a team-friendly deal, Burnes has only one year of team control remaining and could be dealt this offseason.

Christian Yelich is arguably their best (catcher William Contreras has a case) and certainly their most expensive player, due $26 million per season through 2028. Their recent run of success can directly be traced through their fleecing of the Marlins in the deal that brought him aboard prior to the 2018 season. He won the NL MVP award that season and arguably should have repeated in 2019. Injuries have prevented him from again reaching such heights, and he has gone from an MVP on a relatively low salary to a solid player on a very high one. The Brewers need to have multiple players in the former batch and very few in the latter to be contenders.

Enter Jackson Chourio.

He is a 20 years old, and has played all of six games above the Double-A level. That said, he possesses ample raw tools and quite refined skills for his age. His career .286-.347-.490 slash line might not exactly jump off the page at you, but a bit of context is required.

He has excelled against significantly older competition throughout his brief minor league career. Each season, I prepare an ordered list of top minor league position player prospects based on production relative to league and level, adjusted for age. There are no adjustments for park or position. Though it mainly serves as a master follow list, a starting point from which more traditional scouting methods can be undertaken, the ranks have value.

Chourio was #4 on my 2022 list, and #39 in 2023. That might not appear to be a big difference, but it is. It’s the difference between a generational prospect and merely a very good one. Last season, he hit .282-.338-.467 as a 19-year-old in AA. In 2022, he hit .324-.373-.600 as an 18-year-old in Low-A ball, before struggling a bit in 127 High-A at bats.

The Brewers are set to give him the largest contract ($82M guaranteed over eight years plus two team option years with a $2M buyout) for a player lacking MLB experience. Of course, this is a gamble - teams have taken similar though less expensive gambles on the likes of Scott Kingery and Jon Singleton in the past and have come up dry.

But in a sense the Brewers are doing what they have to do to remain contenders - nab a superstar at a less than superstar price, as they did in the early days of Yelich. If Chourio is the guy, they win really big.

I looked for comparable players in my minor league position player ranking database, and came up with three current MLB regular outfielders who had one elite minor league season and a second really good, though sub-elite one. Three names popped up - Joc Pederson, Nick Castellanos and Jordan Walker.

Let’s tackle the first two together. Chourio is a better athlete and has superior complementary skills than both. It can be argued, however, that both had purer hit tools in the minor leagues. Castellanos certainly did, while Pederson has always had pure platoon player risk. If Chourio turns out to be a Pederson or a Castellanos, the Brewers will certainly profit from this contract, though they’re clearly hoping for more.

Then there’s Walker, who might be the most applicable case. Just a year ago, Jordan Walker was in many ways Jackson Chourio, a player whose ceiling was off the charts, a seemingly can’t miss type. In 2021 he was the #1 player on my minor league list, before dropping to #37 in 2022. Last season, he showed flashes of brilliance at the major league level but struggled overall, even back at Triple-A, as some swing changes focused on launch angle didn’t take.

Going forward, Walker still is high-ceiling type, but the can’t miss label is gone. Chourio’s 2024 is every bit as pivotal as Walker’s 2023. Will he start for the Brewers right away? Is he ready? We will soon find out.

One thing is certain. While much of baseball is shopping in the free market for superstars like Shohei Ohtani, the Brewers and their small market brethren have to do it another way. The Chourio deal is a gamble, but it’s likely to pay off at least somewhat, and could be a coup (though it also could be a dud). The Brewers need to grow their own superstars, and strike when they have a player with such potential in their grasp.