The betting markets continue to believe President Joe Biden is likely to drop out of the 2024 electoral race, despite his Wednesday evening meeting with a group of Democratic governors where he insisted he is staying on.
President Biden has faced growing calls to drop out of the race after a shaky debate performance ... [+]
According to the prediction market platform Polymarket, bettors on Thursday morning believe there is a 62% chance of Biden dropping out of the race, up from around 51% a day earlier.
Bets on Biden dropping out briefly crossed 82 cents per share (equating to an 82% chance) earlier on Wednesday after the New York Times reported the president was “seriously considering” it, but the number settled at around 62% after a White House official dismissed the report as false.
Highlighting the betting market’s lack of confidence in Biden staying in the race, bettors on Polymarket believe Vice President Kamala Harris has slightly better odds of winning the 2024 election at 15% compared to Biden’s 12% chances.
Bookmakers on PredictIt, which is also taking bets on the election, are giving Biden only slightly better odds than Harris (45% to 38%) of becoming the official Democratic nominee.
PredictIt bettors believe Biden’s chances on Thursday of becoming the Democratic nominee are worse than what they were on Monday when it 68%.
The market’s doubts about Biden remaining in the race come despite his meeting with a group of Democratic governors at the White House on Wednesday, where he informed them of his plans to stay in the race and reportedly told them he had undergone a medical checkup.
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