Votes cast on Election Day tend to favor Republicans, while Democrats are historically favored in early voting, causing blue and red “mirages” depending on which types of votes each state counts first—a major factor in the 2020 race that could show up again Tuesday, though it may be less prominent this time.
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta, ... [+]
The “red mirage” refers to early vote totals that favor Republicans as ballots cast in-person on Election Day are counted, while a “blue shift” occurs as absentee and provisional ballots are totaled (since Democrats traditionally vote by mail more frequently than Republicans).
Conversely, some states now count their mail ballots first, potentially leading to a “blue mirage” in states like Georgia early in the night, followed by a “red shift” as GOP-leaning in-person votes are added to the total.
The “red mirage” phenomenon was identified in a study by the data firm Hawkfish, funded by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, in 2020 that correctly predicted then-President Donald Trump could appear to be winning the race by the end of Election Day, but Joe Biden could ultimately pull out ahead.
Ohio State University election law expert Edward Foley coined the term “blue shift” after the 2012 election, reporting in a 2019 paper that the Democratic candidate in the previous four presidential elections picked up at least 22,000 votes after Election Day.
In addition to more Democrats voting absentee, the blue shift is also fueled by election reforms after 2000 that made it easier for voters who experienced issues with their registration to cast provisional ballots, a scenario that more often affects people who lean Democratic, such as lower-income voters and college students, The New York Times reported.
Vote totals typically take longer to calculate in more densely populated urban areas that favor Democrats, as opposed to smaller rural precincts that lean Republican, which can also skew early results.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton ended up winning the popular vote, but at the time she conceded (after Trump had reached the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the election) Trump was also up in the number of raw votes nationally.
The “blue shift” in 2020 was similar to 2016, according to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology Election Lab analysis, which found counties Biden won counted ballots slower, on average, than counties Trump won, leaning Biden to gain one point in votes counted after the Thursday following the election, nearly identical to Clinton’s net gain in 2016.
This year’s blue and red mirages might be less prominent as fewer voters cast absentee ballots compared to 2020 and more Republicans are voting early. Several states have also updated their vote processing rules since pandemic-impacted 2020, possibly leading to faster counts.
Wisconsin: Local election officials aren’t allowed to start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, a policy that has caused some delays in prior elections, particularly in bigger cities like Milwaukee. If smaller, redder rural counties count quickly, while deep-blue Milwaukee takes a while to post its tallies, we could see an initial red mirage.
Michigan: Unlike in 2020, local officials now have more time to process mail ballots, possibly leading to fewer delays and a less severe red mirage. Advocacy group Protect Democracy thinks a small red mirage is possible, though, if smaller, redder counties report results before big blue counties like Wayne.
Nevada: Most of the state’s population lives in Democratic-leaning Clark County, which could take longer to count its mail ballots than the rest of the state, leading to a possible red mirage and blue shift, Protect Democracy notes. The state also allows absentee ballots to arrive after Election Day as long as they’re postmarked by Tuesday, meaning more mail votes could be added to the total every day.
Georgia: The state allowed counties to start processing mail ballots weeks ago, and requires them to report most mail-in and early tallies an hour after polls close—possibly giving Democrats an early lead before GOP-leaning Election Day votes are tacked on. Georgia counts quickly, though, so any blue mirage will be short-lived.
North Carolina: This state also counts votes quickly and is expected to start by reporting mail-in ballots, potentially causing a brief blue mirage.
Arizona: The state will start by reporting many of its earliest mail-in ballots before tallying Election Day votes, creating a possible blue mirage. Officials will then circle back to verifying and counting “late earlies,” or mail ballots that arrived on or right before Election Day, which could take days.
This must-win state could have an early blue mirage as an initial round of mail-in ballots are reported, but a red mirage may show up next as Election Day votes are counted. Since county officials can’t start processing mail ballots until the morning of Election Day, counting all of the last mail-in ballots could take a while, meaning a blue shift could emerge in the days following Tuesday. The state had a very pronounced blue shift in 2020, but counting is expected to be faster this year, Protect Democracy notes.
How long it will take to call the election. In an election this close, with polls showing Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris polling within less than two points of each other in all seven battlegrounds, the race might not be called on Election Day. Federal law requires states to complete recounts and resolve any disputes about the results by Dec. 11. There are some reasons to believe results will be counted quicker this year than in 2020, including record-breaking in-person early vote totals in several states, and fewer absentee ballots than the previous election, which took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading more voters to cast ballots by mail. Some states, such as Michigan, have also changed their laws since 2020 to allow absentee ballots to be counted before Election Day, while others have tightened restrictions, including North Carolina, which enacted a new law last year requiring officials to wait until 7:30 p.m.—after polls close—to begin tabulating results, as opposed to doing so in real time.
Trump used the “red mirage” to allege there was voter fraud in the 2020 election, insisting only votes counted on Election Day were valid. He prematurely claimed victory in 2020 at 2 a.m. on election night, when at least a half-dozen battleground states had yet to be called, declaring “we want all voting to stop . . . we don’t want them to find any ballots at 4 o’clock in the morning and add them to the list.” The election was called for Biden on Nov. 7, after his win in Pennsylvania put him over the 270 electoral votes needed to secure victory, but Georgia and North Carolina weren’t called until Nov. 19 and Nov. 13, respectively. In an attempt to preempt a loss, Trump claimed without evidence during his 2020 campaign that mailed ballots were susceptible to fraud, a narrative he has largely dropped during his most recent campaign, encouraging his supporters to vote in any way possible.
Trump also claimed without evidence during the 2018 midterms that shrinking leads for Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and Gov. Ron DeSantis—who both ended up winning their elections but by smaller margins than initial Election Day tallies—were a result of “large numbers of new ballots” having “showed up out of nowhere,” he tweeted, adding “Must go with Election Night!”
Trump has suggested repeatedly he won’t accept the results if he loses, insisting Democrats can’t win unless they “cheat.” Trump is laying the groundwork to contest the results by falsely claiming Democrats are allowing undocumented migrants to vote, and that his legal cases, Harris’ replacement of Biden at the top of the ticket and negative media coverage of his campaign all amount to election fraud. On Tuesday, he also promoted allegations on his Truth Social account that Lancaster County has received “THOUSANDS of potentially FRAUDULENT Voter Registration Forms and Mail-In Ballot Applications from a third party group . . . on top of Lancaster County being caught with 2600 Fake Ballots and Forms, all written by the same person.” Lancaster County officials said they were investigating about 2,500 applications from voter canvassing centers around the county, reporting about 60% appeared to be fraudulent, citing inaccurate addresses, fake names and personal identification information and addresses that didn’t match Social Security information. Officials said two other counties were also investigating application irregularities.
More than 15.2 million. That’s how many Democrats have cast early ballots this year as of Nov. 4, compared to roughly 14.5 million Republicans, according to Florida Election Lab data for states that track partisan affiliations among early voters. The numbers show a greater share of Republicans appear to be voting early this year compared to 2020.
Trump-Harris Early Voting Trends: GOP Cuts Into Democratic Advantage (Forbes)