Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in 11 of 12 national surveys taken after their consequential June 27 debate, according to Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker—though surveys are split on whether potential Biden replacements would outperform the president against Trump.
Trump and Biden remain virtually tied, as Trump's early polling lead slips
Trump leads Biden by 3.3 points in Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker, a 1.8-point swing in Trump’s favor since the debate, and is up by 1.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker.
Trump is up by three points over Biden in the latest poll by Emerson College, taken July 7-8, and leads by two in Morning Consult’s weekly survey.
Trump leads Biden by six points in a New York Times/Siena College survey conducted Friday to Tuesday, a three-point swing in Trump’s favor since a poll a week earlier, and Trump’s widest lead in any poll by the groups since he launched his first presidential campaign in 2015.
A Wall Street Journal survey conducted after the debate also found Biden trails Trump by six points, Trump’s widest lead over Biden in Journal surveys dating to 2021 in a two-way matchup, and a four-point increase in Trump’s lead since February.
A CBS/YouGov post-debate poll taken in the seven crucial battleground states likely to determine the winner of the election found Trump leads Biden by three points, after trailing him by one point last month.
The debate was widely viewed as one of the most important nights for the candidates of the 2024 election cycle, particularly in a race in which any shift in support could sway the outcome—and 16% of voters said they were open to changing who they plan to vote for in November based on the candidates’ performance, a Quinnipiac University poll released found.
Biden has firmly rebuffed calls from at least eight elected Democrats, a string of prominent pundits and multiple major news outlets to resign his candidacy in the wake of his disastrous debate performance. As of Tuesday, he appeared to be staving off his detractors as more and more Democrats publicly expressed support for the president, no additional lawmakers over the past two days have joined calls for his resignation and at least one who reportedly called for Biden’s resignation in private, Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y., reversed course and expressed support for Biden.
“The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end,” Biden said in a Monday letter to congressional Democrats.
How potential replacement candidates would fare against Trump in November. If the election were held today, most polls show Vice President Kamala Harris—the most likely replacement for Biden if he were to drop out—would perform better than any of the other Democrats commonly floated, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Harris and Biden, however, perform similarly, with some surveys showing Harris faring better against Trump and others showing Biden performing better. What the polls don’t, and can’t factor in, however, is how months of campaigning by Harris or another candidate who doesn’t benefit from her national name recognition could affect voter sentiment.
Polls taken before the debate consistently showed Trump leads Biden in the seven crucial swing states, all of which Biden won, with the exception of North Carolina, in 2020. A May Cook Political Report survey found Trump up by three points on average in the seven states, a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump leads Biden by four points overall across the battleground states and an April New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll found Trump would beat Biden in five of six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada), with the exception of Wisconsin.
In a race this close, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the potential to sway the election with his independent run—though it’s unclear in whose favor. A May Emerson poll found Trump widens his lead over Biden, from two points to five, with Kennedy Jr., independent Cornell West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the mix. Kennedy received 6% support, while 10% of voters said they were undecided. A May Fox poll shows Trump’s lead increases two points with the three independents on the ballot. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found Kennedy Jr. draws votes from key Biden supporters. Kennedy has the support of just 10% of voters in six battleground states in a five-way contest, but support grows to 18% for voters between the ages of 18 and 29 and 14% for Hispanic voters. And a recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows Trump’s five-point lead is unchanged with Kennedy Jr. on the ballot. Meanwhile, an April NBC poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points in a head-to-head race, but beating him by two with Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates on the ballot.
Polls have consistently suggested Biden—and the Democratic Party as a whole—have been losing support among key demographics, including Black, Latino and younger voters, which largely backed the party in the past. A May NPR/PBS/Marist survey found voters under 45 prefer Biden over Trump by just four points and Biden leads among Gen Z/millennials by six points in a head-to-head matchup, but the vote swings in Trump’s favor among the two groups (by six points among Gen Z/Millennials and eight among voters under 45) with third-party candidates in the mix. The April Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also found Biden is tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in six battleground states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada) and trailing him by four points in those states among 18- to 29-year-olds, two groups which voted for Biden with more than 60% support in 2020, according to the Times. Biden also appears to be losing support in Democratic strongholds, such as New York, where he’s up nine points over Trump, according to a May Siena College survey, after beating Trump there by 23 points in 2020.
Biden and Trump are poised for a historic rematch after clinching their respective parties’ nominations in March, ending the primary season much earlier in the year than in previous elections. Polls show historically low voter enthusiasm as both candidates have relatively low favorability ratings—below 45%. The NBC poll found 64% voters said they are “very interested” in this year’s election, a 20-year low. Trump has centered his campaign around his legal woes, accusing prosecutors and judges in his criminal cases of working at Biden’s behest to hurt his chances of winning the election, though there’s no evidence suggesting the notion is true. Biden, meanwhile, has cast Trump as a threat to democracy, citing his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots, and has hammered Trump over his appointment of Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Polls show the economy, immigration, abortion and inflation are consistently top issues for voters, with the Times/Siena/Inquirer survey finding a majority trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy, crime and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trust Biden more than Trump on abortion.
These Are The Six Swing States Trump Needs To Take From Biden To Win In November (Forbes)
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Biden's Support Suddenly Falters: More Democrats Openly Want Him Out Of Race (Forbes)