This back-to-school season, let’s root for the procrastinators. For they may be the ones who make retail sales add up.

At this point in the back-to-school timeline, late-season shoppers can indeed be a retailer’s last hope to meet projections, which are modest to start with. Back-to-school spending is expected to decline by 10% in 2023, to $597 per child from $661 in 2022, according to a Deloitte’s 2023 back-to-school survey.

To pocket sales early, many retailers launched big back-to-school (BTS) sales in July to compete with Amazon Prime Day. That event, on July 11 and 12, generated a record-breaking $12.7 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. And sure enough, by early July, 55% of BTS shoppers said they’ve already begun fulfilling their lists, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual BTS survey.

But back-to-school shopping, just like December holiday shopping, is defined as much by last-minute spenders as early-birders. Indeed, the biggest retail deals are expected to run through August, DealNews reports.

The main factor shaping this year’s BTS season is soooo 2022: budget-eating inflation that just won’t go away. Back in 2022, the price of Sharpies rose by 55%, and Elmer’s Glue by 30%, CNN reported. Based on these surges, this year’s “deal” prices could well be equal to 2021’s full prices.

But retailers can be smart cookies. Here are a few ways they might cram last-minute sales into shopper baskets – even into September – based on the leading survey findings.

If retailers and brands can convince budget-conscious shoppers that their back-to-school offerings make economic and emotional sense (you can’t put a price on a child’s delight, right?), then they have a fighting chance of goosing up Deloitte’s conservative spending predictions.

Really, these approaches are copied from the same reliable chapters that retailers have long turned to in their playbooks: understand the customer’s needs and limitations, offer practical options, connect on an emotional level, make the occasional splurge feel rewarding.

In October (when kids are still asking for new back-to-school clothes), retailers will likely review their notes from this year’s playbook. Here’s hoping they get high marks.