It’s time for my annual batted ball-based mid-season team true-talent rankings —here’s a quick refresher on the methodology.

In a nutshell, league averages for each exit speed/launch angle "bucket" are applied to each team's population of batted balls, both for and against, to derive the production they "should have" achieved and allowed. Add back the Ks and BBs, and voila, each team receives an offensive and pitching rating, relative to league average of 100. For hitters, the higher number the better, for pitchers, the lower.

Team defense is also measured, in a somewhat unique manner. Clubs' performance is compared head-to-head versus their opponent; the ratio of actual production versus projected performance for both clubs is compared to each other, resulting in a overall defensive multiplier that can also be spread among the individual batted ball types.

In 2020, I added a new wrinkle. I introduced a team extreme ground ball-pulling penalty, similar to a concept I use for individual batters. It does not impact the overall team rating, but it more appropriately punishes a team’s offense rather than its defense for shortcomings in this area.

To qualify for such a penalty, a team had to both A) pull more than 5 times as many grounders as it hit to the opposite field, and B) post actual grounder production lower than the level it “should have” posted based on its exit speed. The penalty is equal to the amount of that difference. Four clubs were subjected to this penalty, compared to three in 2022, six in 2021 and seven in 2020.

Yesterday, we ran down the Bottom 15. Today it’s the Top 15, six of whom who were not in playoff position at the All Star break - three of them had losing records. Here we go:

According to my method, the Cubs were the least-bad NL Central team at the break, and deserve to be in playoff position. All in all, they’re a pretty average bunch. On the negative side, they’ve struck out 91 more times than their opposition, and on the positive side, their 87.7 mph average exit speed allowed is the 2nd lowest in baseball, behind another team with a losing record that we haven’t yet encountered on this list. Starter Justin Steele has been instrumental to that end. Team defense is another strength - their strong 92.8 Ground Ball Multiplier is anchored by a solid performance by free agent acquisition Dansby Swanson.

The Giants were barely in the “real” playoffs at the break, while standing barely out of them according to my method. Their pitching staff’s ability to induce ground balls is the team’s biggest strength. Led by Logan Webb, they’ve limited opponents to an average launch angle of 8.2 degrees, lowest in the game. Their +5.3 launch angle differential is also best in baseball. Other than that, and the +13 homer differential it’s helped create, this is a pretty ordinary lot. Their +64 walk differential is almost totally offset by a +56 gap in whiffs, and they’ve actually allowed their opponents to hit the ball harder than they have (by 88.9 to 88.1 mph on average).

Well, well, well, the defending World Champs aren’t even a playoff team at the break according to my method. They’ve been hurt by injuries to Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley, and top free agent acquisition Jose Abreu has been a bust, though he’s picked it up a bit of late. The club’s biggest strength, as usual, has been its ability to put the ball in play - they’ve struck out 136 fewer times than their opponents. They’ve put 158 more balls in play than their opponents as a result, and have big advantages in the right categories (+91 in fly balls, +45 in liners). They’re the second club we’ve encountered to be assessed an excessive grounder pulling penalty. Their defense has been an issue this year - they have subpar multipliers on flies, liners and grounders, with 1B Abreu and RF Kyle Tucker the worst performers.

The Marlins were in playoff position in the actual standings and according to this batted ball-based method at the break. It’s still not a good offense, but the club has taken on the characteristics of its best player, Luis Arraez. On the positive side, they’ve struck out 129 fewer times than their opponents, and have +57 fly ball and +39 liner differentials. On the negative, their 9.6 degree average launch angle is the lowest in baseball. Their pitchers have done an excellent job attempting to keep pace, limiting their opponents to a 10.6 degree average launch angle, 4th lowest in the game. Only the White Sox and Twins have whiffed more batters than the Fish.

Doesn’t it figure that this playoff-allergic bunch is the best non-playoff team according to this method at the break. The offense, led by Shohei Ohtani, is legit. Only the otherworldly Braves have a higher team average exit speed than the Angels’ 89.8 mph. Their +1.9 mph exit speed differential compared to their opponents is also 2nd to the Braves. They have a +29 homer differential. Other than those edges, this is a pretty average - but top-heavy - team. Their pitching staff’s tendency to walk batters - only truly bad teams exceed their total of 337 - is a clear negative. Behind Ohtani, the staff remains quite rough.

Coming out of the break, the Padres were 29-36 in a stretch that saw them outscore their opponents by 59 runs. Hence, their placement here, and the gap between their actual and projected record. Positives? They’ve out-walked their opponents by a whopping 83, led by Juan Soto. Their +1.4 degree exit speed differential is tied for 3rd best in MLB, and their 87.3 mph average exit speed allowed is easily the lowest. They also possess a +1.8 launch angle advantage over their opponents, though that’s partially due to their hitters’ relative pop up tendency. There are defensive issues, though Fangraphs likes them better. They’ve allowed 18 more fly ball singles than they’ve hit, despite an overall fly ball deficit. Soto has been subpar with the glove.

When you get down to it, a pretty similar club to the Padres, and this method sees both as wild cards at the break. The Mariners’ biggest strength is their pitching staff’s stinginess with walks - their 228 free passes were the lowest in either league at the break. Despite allowing 99 more balls in play (thanks to a +84 strikeout differential), the club hit 47 more fly balls and 7 more liners than their opponents at the break. They hit their batted balls pretty hard, too - their 89.1 mph average exit speed ranked 9th in MLB. Team defense was slightly below average across the board, another disagreement with Fangraphs. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this bunch go on a run in the second half.

This method sees the Twins as the AL Central leader. Big changes in the way this club has operated compared to last season - in 2022, this was a bat-first group, while this year the pitching rates as baseball’s best. Their staff managed the difficult feat of having above average K, BB, pop up and grounder rates. That’s very difficult to do. Joe Ryan has led the way. On the down side, no one strikes out as much as the Joey Gallo-led Twins’ hitters. Looking at a list of offensive and pitching strikeouts by team at the break, Twin hitters (916) are 1st, Twin pitchers (870) are 3rd. Their hitters were assessed an excessive grounder-pulling penalty, another Gallo-related issue. Some offensive positives - a +20 homer and +49 line drive differential.

Have to say I was a bit surprised by this playoff-worthy projection. This is obviously a solid offensive ball club. But they at first glance appear to be quite average compared to their opposition. +30 in walks, -25 in whiffs, small but not exactly eye-popping edges. They’ve hit a few more flies and liners than their opponents, but their opponents hit theirs fractionally harder. Honestly, the fact they’ve turned all of this into +31 single, +27 double and +4 triple differentials is notable, and it comes out in the team defense calculation (another difference of opinion with Fangraphs). On virtually the same number of flies, the Sox have 18 more singles and 19 more doubles in the air. If Brayan Bello and James Paxton hold up, their staff could remain in the average range and key a playoff charge.

Here’s our highest-ranking team that was not in playoff position at the All Star break. Their pitching staff, led by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, has always posted stellar K/BB ratios - but their offensive K/BB totals were almost in synch with the pitchers at the break (+9 BB, -8 K differentials). Bryce Harper missed most of the first half and isn’t yet himself, Trea Turner has struggled - and despite a subpar offense, the club is just fine. They’ve hit 64 more liners than their opponents and have sizable edges in team exit speed (+1.1 mph) and launch angle (+1.1 degrees). If Harper gets going, that +3 homer differential could mushroom and take this team higher.

Only teams that were in playoff position at the break remain, and all of them are quite strong across the board. The Jays have struck out 142 fewer times than their opponents, putting 194 more balls in play. They’ve wasted much of that surplus by posting a +127 grounder differential, allowing their opponents to out-homer them by 15. Infield defense has been a huge plus - led by impending free agent 3B Matt Chapman, they’ve posted an 80.8 Grounder Multiplier. The Jays have hit 27 ground ball doubles thus far, while allowing SIX. And the pitchers? The Twins and Jays’ staffs are the only two with over 600 more Ks than BBs. Big ceiling here.

The Dodgers finish 1st in this exercise annually, but are a bit off the pace this time around. Of course, this is their bridge year as they bide time before going hard after Shohei Ohtani in the free agent market. 13 different pitchers have started games for them this year, and yet they’re still winning at around a .600 clip. The Dodgers’ superpower during their multi-year run has been their ability to hit more fly balls than anyone - their +131 fly ball differential is the best in the game, as is their total of 814 flies. Their +3.6 degree launch angle differential is 2nd best. And only the Braves have a better fly ball exit speed differential than the Dodgers’ +2.4 mph and homer differential than their +47. Their overall +1.4 mph advantage is 4th best. Oh, and they have a +104 walk differential, as their kid starters have been stingy with free passes. A negative? They’re hitting only .172 AVG-.190 SLG on the ground, and were assessed an excessive grounder-pulling penalty.

They’ve cooled off a bit after a torrid start, but the Rays remain one of baseball’s best. I struggle to wrap my head around their +41 homer differential, as their fly ball exit speed advantage (+1.0 mph) doesn’t suggest that large a gap. Their +76 fly ball and +2.4 degree launch angle advantages sure do help, as does their pitching staff’s ability to keep the ball on the ground (10.5 average launch angle is game’s 3rd lowest). Their largest strength by far is their infield defense, led by SS Wander Franco. Their 70.7 Grounder Multiplier is by far the game’s best. They’ve yielded 49 fewer ground ball singles and 13 fewer ground balls doubles (9 to 22) than they’ve hit, staggering differences. A quibble? The other top clubs (besides the Rangers) have significant K/BB advantages, while the Rays are relatively level.

Where on earth did this come from? While much has been made of their incredible offensive performance with men on base, which simply cannot be sustained, this team is legitimately good - significantly better than its record at the break. They’ve only hit four fewer fly balls than the Dodgers, and 110 more than their opponents - while simultaneously hitting 34 fewer pop ups. They’re also +69 in line drives. Their pitching, a long-time problem, is in the average range thanks to a slew of recent free agent deals that have worked out (Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Martin Perez, Andrew Heaney) outweighing the one that hasn’t (Jacob deGrom). To top it off, the defense has been great (Fangraphs loves it too). Their 78.3 Fly Ball Multiplier is the game’s best. Led by Adolis Garcia, they’ve allowed 21 and 31 fewer fly ball singles and doubles, respectively, than their opposition.

What an offense, the best ever measured by this method. They’ve pulled off the impressive combination of excellent contact frequency and authority. Only two NL clubs - and five overall - have struck out less than the Braves. And the thunder - their overall 91.2 mph average exit speed and their 94.1 mph fly ball mark are both easily MLB bests. Case in point - led by Ronald Acuna Jr., the Braves hit 126 fly balls at 105 mph or higher. The Dodgers are 2nd with 98. (The Rays have 3.) Their 96.2 mph average liner exit speed is also best. Their pitching depth has been tested. Like the Dodgers, they’ve run out 13 different starting pitchers, and are still running strong K and BB rates. Their astounding +76 homer differential wouldn’t be possible without help from the arms. Defense - well, that’s an issue. Acuna has been a liability, keying a 112.5 Fly Ball Multiplier.