Former President Donald Trump holds his most significant lead of any swing state in Arizona, according to polling averages, with the latest pair of final pre-election surveys showing him beating Vice President Kamala Harris, though the race remains remarkably close in all seven battlegrounds.
Trump's has maintained a lead over Harris in Arizona. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Trump leads Harris by 2.5 points in Arizona in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average, by two points, 50%-48%, in the final Emerson College/The Hill swing state survey out Monday (margin of error 3.2 points) and by four points, 49%-45%, among likely voters in a New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).
Trump led Harris by a slightly larger five points (51%-46%) in a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll released Oct. 12 (margin of error 4), in line with the four-point lead he held over the vice president in September.
The candidates are tied at 48% in a Morning Consult poll released Sunday.
Trump also leads 51%-47% among likely voters in a Cooperative Election Study survey released last week (2,066 respondents)—a large-scale poll sponsored by universities and conducted by YouGov.
Several other polls show a tight race: Harris is up 48%-47% over Trump in a CNN/SSRS poll out Oct. 29, and Trump leads 50%-49% in a Marist poll of likely voters published Oct. 24—virtual ties considering the polls’ margins of error (4.4 points for CNN/SSRS and 3.7 points for Marist).
The former president also had a 51%-48% advantage over Harris in a CBS/YouGov survey of likely voters released Oct. 18, as Trump maintains a commanding lead among voters who view the economy and the border as major factors—though Harris leads with voters who see abortion and democracy as key issues.
Among likely Latino voters in Arizona, Harris led Trump 56%-42% according to the CBS poll, somewhat smaller than President Joe Biden’s edge in 2020 (more than 30% of Arizona residents are Hispanic or Latino).
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It could take 10 to 13 days to finish counting ballots, officials said, as Arizona is one of the slowest states to release results and could be further delayed this year by a lengthy two-page ballot.
Arizona voters will vote on the state’s Right to Abortion Initiative, which would codify abortion rights in the state’s constitution. An immigration and border law enforcement measure—which would make unlawfully crossing the Arizona border from Mexico a state crime, letting state police arrest and detain migrants and allowing state judges to deport them— will also be on the ballot. Harris and Democrats are banking on the abortion ballot measure to prove successful—as similar initiatives have in seven other states where they’ve been up for a vote—while Trump hopes for the same for the border enforcement measure. Immigration is a leading concern in Arizona, the Associated Press reported, noting frustration over illegal immigration persists in the state following a surge in migrant crossings.
Trump, who won Arizona in 2016, lost the battleground state by just 10,457 votes in 2020 to Biden. Despite the loss, Trump claimed victory in Arizona and later alleged the entire voter database of Maricopa County, the state’s most populous county, was deleted. Republican officials overseeing the election refuted Trump’s claim, with Maricopa County recorder Stephen Richer characterizing Trump’s statement as “unhinged.” Trump also attempted to press former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) to overturn the election, telling the governor in a phone call if enough fraudulent votes were identified, it would flip the results in his favor, The Washington Post reported. Trump is battling with Harris in six other swing states in addition to Arizona. They all remain tightly contested.
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