Polls of Arizona remain extremely tight, including a new survey that shows Vice President Kamala Harris has a one-point lead over former President Donald Trump—well within the margin of error—in a swing state where Trump has a narrow edge, and immigration and abortion ballot measures will play a key role.
Trump's has maintained a lead over Harris in Arizona. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Harris is up 48%-47% over Trump in a CNN/SSRS poll out Tuesday, Trump leads 50%-49% in a Marist poll of likely voters published Thursday and Harris is up 49.1%-48.8% in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult likely voter poll published Wednesday—marking virtual ties considering the polls’ margins of error (4.4 points for CNN/SSRS, 3.7 points for Marist and three points for Bloomberg).
Meanwhile, Trump leads Harris by 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average, raising the prospect of Trump retaking the state after Biden won it in a 2020 upset.
Trump is ahead by three points, 49% to 46%, according to last week’s Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters (margin of error 5).
The former president also had a 51%-48% advantage over Harris in a CBS/YouGov survey of likely voters, as Trump maintains a commanding lead among voters who view the economy and the border as major factors—though Harris leads with voters who see abortion and democracy as key issues.
Among likely Latino voters in Arizona, Harris led Trump 56%-42% according to the CBS poll, somewhat smaller than President Joe Biden’s edge in 2020 (more than 30% of Arizona residents are Hispanic or Latino).
Trump led Harris by a slightly larger five points (51%-46%) in a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll released Oct. 12 (margin of error 4), in line with the four-point lead he held over the vice president in September.
Trump holds an advantage in Arizona over Harris on the economy, the Times reported, noting the former president has a narrow edge on the question of who would better help the working class.
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Arizona voters will vote on the state’s Right to Abortion Initiative, which would codify abortion rights in the state’s constitution. An immigration and border law enforcement measure—which would make unlawfully crossing the Arizona border from Mexico a state crime, letting state police arrest and detain migrants and allowing state judges to deport them— will also be on the ballot. Harris and Democrats are banking on the abortion ballot measure to prove successful—as similar initiatives have in seven other states where they’ve been up for a vote—while Trump hopes for the same for the border enforcement measure. Immigration is a leading concern in Arizona, the Associated Press reported, noting frustration over illegal immigration persists in the state following a surge in migrant crossings.
1.5 points. That is Harris’ national polling lead in FiveThirtyEight’s average. Trump has a 0.1-point lead in Real Clear Politics’ polling average and Harris leads by 1.2 points in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
Trump, who won Arizona in 2016, lost the battleground state by just 10,457 votes in 2020 to Biden. Despite the loss, Trump claimed victory in Arizona and later alleged the entire voter database of Maricopa County, the state’s most populous county, was deleted. Republican officials overseeing the election refuted Trump’s claim, with Maricopa County recorder Stephen Richer characterizing Trump’s statement as “unhinged.” Trump also attempted to press former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) to overturn the election, telling the governor in a phone call if enough fraudulent votes were identified, it would flip the results in his favor, The Washington Post reported. Trump is battling with Harris in six other swing states in addition to Arizona. They all remain tightly contested.
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