Most polls of Arizona show Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump with a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, though the two candidates are essentially tied in a new survey out Wednesday, in the swing state where immigration and abortion ballot measures will play a key role in how voting shakes out this November.
Trump's has maintained a lead over Harris in Arizona. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Harris is up 49.1%-48.8% in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult likely voter poll published Wednesday, marking a virtual tie with a three-point margin of error.
Trump is ahead by three points, 49% to 46%, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters released Monday (margin of error 5).
Trump had a 51%-48% advantage over Harris in a CBS/YouGov survey of likely voters released Thursday, as Trump maintains a commanding lead among voters who view the economy and the border as major factors—though Harris leads with voters who see abortion and democracy as key issues.
Among likely Latino voters in Arizona, Harris led Trump 56%-42% according to the CBS poll, somewhat smaller than President Joe Biden’s edge in 2020 (more than 30% of Arizona residents are Hispanic or Latino).
Trump led Harris by five points (51% to 46%) in a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll released Oct. 12, in line with the four-point lead he held over the vice president in September.
The former president leads Harris by 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average, raising the prospect of Trump retaking the state after Biden won it in a 2020 upset.
Trump holds an advantage in Arizona over Harris on the economy, the Times reported, noting the former president has a narrow edge on the question of who would better help the working class.
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Arizona voters will vote on the state’s Right to Abortion Initiative, which would codify abortion rights in the state’s constitution. An immigration and border law enforcement measure—which would make unlawfully crossing the Arizona border from Mexico a state crime, letting state police arrest and detain migrants and allowing state judges to deport them— will also be on the ballot. Harris and Democrats are banking on the abortion ballot measure to prove successful—as similar initiatives have in seven other states where they’ve been up for a vote—while Trump hopes for the same for the border enforcement measure. Immigration is a leading concern in Arizona, the Associated Press reported, noting frustration over illegal immigration persists in the state following a surge in migrant crossings.
1.7 points. That is Harris’ national polls lead in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. The vice president also has a 0.9-point lead in Real Clear Politics’ polling average and leads by 1.7 points in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
Trump, who won Arizona in 2016, lost the battleground state by just 10,457 votes in 2020 to Biden. Despite the loss, Trump claimed victory in Arizona and later alleged the entire voter database of Maricopa County, the state’s most populous county, was deleted. Republican officials overseeing the election refuted Trump’s claim, with Maricopa County recorder Stephen Richer characterizing Trump’s statement as “unhinged.” Trump also attempted to press former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) to overturn the election, telling the governor in a phone call if enough fraudulent votes were identified, it would flip the results in his favor, The Washington Post reported. Trump is battling with Harris in six other swing states in addition to Arizona. They all remain tightly contested.
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