In Cleveland, baseball fans are celebrating their team winning the MLB Draft Lottery for the No. 1 pick in 2024. The Guardians had only a two percent chance of winning.

“It’s hard to describe. It’s not something that I was expecting at all waking up this morning,” Chris Antonetti, the Guardians’ president of baseball operations told the MLB Network. “In fact, it wasn’t really even on our radar. Knew it was happening, but given the odds, wasn’t spending a whole lot of time on it.

“This is an extraordinary opportunity for us.”

The adage “be careful what you wish for” can be applied, however. The baseball draft is not like the NBA or NFL. Those leagues, for the most part, select players who have performed on the big-time stage in college. In baseball, there are fewer guarantees.

Since the first MLB Draft in 1965, there have been as many picks (three) at No. 1 overall to never play a MLB game as there have been guys who made the Baseball Hall of Fame. That doesn’t include the two most recent top picks, right-hander Paul Skenes by the Pittsburgh Pirates this year and shortstop Jackson Holliday by the Baltimore Orioles in 2022. Both prospects probably will be in the majors very soon.

Holliday is one of 28 high schoolers selected No. 1 overall, Skenes, from LSU, is among 20 players taken from a four-year college. The lone junior college player taken at No. 1 overall is on track for the HOF – Bryce Harper, the slugging outfielder picked first by the Washington Nationals out of the College of Southern Nevada in 2010.

Baseball Hall of Famers selected with first overall pick:

Harold Baines, 1981, Chicago White Sox

Ken Griffey Jr., 1987, Seattle Mariners

Chipper Jones, 1990, Atlanta Braves

No. 1 overall picks who never got to the majors:

Steven Chilcott, 1966, New York Mets

Brien Taylor, 1991, New York Yankees

Brady Aiken, 2014, Houston Astros

The Mets’ pick is the greatest “what could have been” scenario in draft history. That’s because the No. 2 selection overall by the Oakland Athletics that year became one of the most legendary players ever – Hall of Fame slugger Reggie Jackson.

Chilcott, selected out of high school, was tried at catcher, first base and outfield, played only 337 games in the minors and put up such batting averages as .155 at Auburn, .189 at Visalia, .209 at Memphis and .146 at Fort Lauderdale. He retired at age 23.

When the Yankees chose Taylor, out of high school, it was Cleveland that claimed the prize pick in the first round at lucky No. 13 overall. Manny Ramirez hit .312 with 555 homers. The only reason he is not in the Hall of Fame is most voters rightfully take a dim view of his steroid use late in his career.

Another sure-fire Hall of Famer whose legacy – and votes for the Hall – have been tainted by steroids is Alex Rodriguez, picked No. 1 in 1993 by Seattle.

In 1991, became the first draftee to crash the million-dollar threshold when the Yankees gave the left-hander $1,550,000. After two decent seasons in the low minors, he hurt his throwing shoulder in a fight, missed a year, then went 3-15 over five years in Class A. In 2012, he was charged with drug trafficking and spent three years behind bars.

In 2014, not only did Aiken fail to make the majors, so did No. 2 pick Tyler Kolek by the Florida Marlins. Aiken did not sign with Houston out of high school, hurt his arm, and spent all of 2015 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Cleveland took him at No. 17 overall that year and his time in the minors was a disaster. He went 7-18 with a 5.18 ERA in 43 games and was done at age 22. Kolek was worse: 5-16, 5.66 ERA in 64 minor-league games.

The first round in 2014 has produced some fine players: Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Matt Chapman, Carlos Rodon and Aaron Nola among others.

Catcher Danny Goodwin was chosen No. 1 as a high schooler, went to college and was picked No. 1 again. He never played catcher nor played well in the majors.

In 1971, the White Sox took Goodwin out of Peoria (IL) High School. They should have taken a South Carolina high schooler. The Boston Red Sox did, at No. 15 overall. Jim Rice hit .298 with 338 homers and is in the Hall of Fame.

Goodwin went off to Southern University and in 1975, the California Angels made him the top pick again. The next four chosen never made it to the majors and the best pick that year was not until No. 28 overall by the Chicago Cubs. Lee Smith compiled 478 career saves for the Cubs and seven other MLB teams on the way to the Hall of Fame.

Goodwin? He hit .236 with 13 homers over parts of seven MLB seasons for the Angels, Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics. He was a fine minor-leaguer. In 860 games, he batted .313 with 129 homers and 637 RBI.

Fifty years ago, an 18-year-old made a celebrated MLB debut shortly after being the No. 1 pick by the Texas Rangers. David Clyde had an 18-0 record and cartoonish 0.18 ERA as a senior at Westchester High School in Houston. He had five no-hitters, only 18 walks and 328 strikeouts in 148 1/3 innings.

He became an overnight sensation – and failure. Clyde’s MLB debut on June 27, 1973, was the first sellout by the Rangers after the Washington Senators moved to Texas in 1972. The left-hander allowed one hit over five innings, fanning eight and walking seven in a 4-3 win over Minnesota.

A combined record of 7-17 over two seasons got him sent to the minors in 1975. He had shoulder surgery, was traded to Cleveland in 1978 and was done at age 24 with a 18-33 record and 4.63 ERA.

The organization had not learned from its fiasco with Pete Broberg. The right-hander was drafted No. 1 in 1971 and put right into the Senators’ rotation. He went 41-71 overall.

In 2002, Bryan Bullington got $4 million from Pittsburgh as the first pick. He had a 1-9 record in only 26 games for four different big-league teams and battled shoulder injuries.

In 2015, Mark Appel got $6,350,000 from Houston as the top pick. He finally made the majors in 2022 with Philadelphia, working 10 1/3 innings across six games. In between, he had a 5.05 ERA in the minors, including three years (2018-20) in retirement.

The Guardians are notorious for not spending for free agents, though traditionally they are among teams that do spend more on draft picks.

They like picking pitching. Nine of their last 15 top picks were pitchers. Their last six picks in the second round were pitchers.

But for every Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or David Price picked No. 1, there’s the A-B-C of mound failures: Aiken, Bullington and Clyde along with Casey Mize (2018, Detroit) and Luke Hochevar (2006, Kansas City) and others.

Cleveland recently dealt pitcher Cal Quantrill rather than pay his $6.6 million contract for 2024. The No. 1 pick next summer will likely get $3 million more than that — and then take time to advance to the majors.

That is, if indeed he does.