In early August I took my annual interim look at the AL and NL MVP and Cy Young races in both leagues. At that time, my Cy leaders of Pablo Lopez and Zack Wheeler likely seemed a bit unorthodox to most. The MVP picks looked like slam dunks - Ronald Acuna Jr. in the NL and even more obviously, Shohei Ohtani in the AL. The competition has intensified in the NL in the forms of Dodger teammates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, while in the AL, Ohtani’s recent season-ending elbow injury has pried the door open just a bit.

With the free agent to be two-way player’s season now in the books, how high has Ohtani set the bar? Let’s dig into the batted ball-based data and take a look.

I’m going to take a complete look at the field of players competing for the hardware in all of these major awards in the next week and a half. Today, it’s just about Ohtani.

Through July 31, Ohtani had accumulated 39.3 “Tru” Player Runs Above Average on offense, and 14.2 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average on the mound. I have found it quite useful to measure players against league average, and not replacement level, when measuring excellence, i.e., in award races, for Hall of Fame consideration, etc.

As a hitter alone, the 39.3 TPRAA was enough to lay claim to the MVP award as of July 31 - his pitching performance was just gravy. That is not likely to be the case at year’s end, as Ohtani’s offensive TPRAA has increased by only 3.3 to 42.6. His raw offensive TPRAA of 53.7 is dragged down a bit his net baserunning/defensive adjustment of -11.1 per Fangraphs.

While players like Corey Seager, Kyle Tucker, Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez may blaze past Ohtani in offensive TPRAA, none of them have the considerable distinction of being a well above league average pitcher going in their favor. Ohtani’s 13.8 pitching TPRAA won’t place him in the thick of the Cy Young voting, but it’s still a very big deal. However, that’s actually down a bit from 14.2 through July 31, when I had him placed 4th in the interim Cy Young race.

Offensively, Ohtani’s greatness is centered around his destruction of the baseball. No one in the AL hits it as hard as he does overall (94.4 mph) or in the air (98.9 mph), and very few are in his class in line drive authority (99.0 mph). His Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score of 305 is in another galaxy where only the likes of a healthy Aaron Judge can challenge it. His 23.9% K rate is perfectly acceptable for a prolific power source, and his 15.2% walk rate is the league’s best among qualifiers. Searching for a negative? Well, I guess he pulls the ball too much on the ground, but he has the elimination of the shift working in his favor there.

All in all, he “should be” hitting .291-.400-.594, not all that far off of his actual numbers.

On the mound, he relies on blowing the ball past hitters. His 31.5% K rate was pacing AL ERA qualifiers until he ultimately fell short of the qualification threshold. His 10.4% walk rate was also highest, but it’s perfectly acceptable in the context of his overall package. He was basically a league average contact manager this season, with a 97 Adjusted Contact Score. He’s been hit pretty hard in the air (92.1 mph average fly ball exit speed), but that can vary pretty widely from year to year. On the other hand, average liner exit speed allowed is comparatively steady, and is more indicative of skill in that area - the Twins’ Lopez and the Blue Jays’ Chris Bassitt are the only two AL qualifiers who’ve lived anywhere near Ohtani’s 91.0 mph this year. His 78 “Tru” ERA- sits smack in between his 71 ERA- and 91 FIP-.

I’m withholding final judgment on an AL MVP pick until I crank the final numbers for the top contenders, but I honestly can’t fathom an outcome other than Ohtani at #1. The uniqueness of his two-way skill set would be a tiebreaker for me if it turned out to be close.

The offseason should be really interesting. I was prepared to write an article throwing up a yellow light to clubs considering spending $50 million per year expecting 2021-23 level two-way production over the long haul. It’s totally unprecedented in the game’s history, and simply couldn’t be expected to continue - a Tommy John surgery or other serious injury was bound to happen sooner or later.

That said, he likely still does deserve to be the game’s highest paid player. He’s only 29 years old, and as long as the medicals are fairly routine, his offensive future is exceedingly bright. OK, so he’s a DH only next season, and then might not be a full-time pitcher in 2025, either. Worst case, he’s done pitching, and plays right field instead, where his defensive adjustment would be significantly better. This is no 33-year-old aging power-before-hit guy whose decline is set to begin in earnest.

If I were an MLB executive, I would actually see Ohtani as a more attractive free agent target post-injury. His contract will not dramatically rewrite the top of the game’s salary structure. Simply lock him up with a somewhat souped-up Bryce Harper-esque contract, watch him mash for a decade-plus, with any pitching excellence a bonus.